Tuesday, February 12, 2008
UPDATED: Dem & Rep Primary Vote by County
This is what the race looks like up to today (before Potomac Tuesday). All states are in except the contentious Washington caucuses on the Republican side.
The Democratic Primary Race after Today
After Obama sweeps today, it looks really good for him in all but 3 states in my opinion. I predict he will win every state except Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Vermont and Rhode Island. Unfortunately for him, those include the 3 most populous states remaining. If this happens it will come down to the super delegates and Howard Dean to decide the nominee. Now, If Obama can pull out a win in Ohio things look better for him but I think we'd still be looking at a convention fight over Michigan and Florida delegates. If someone wants to win this thing outright before the convention (and terrible infighting) Obama probably needs to win almost every state including Ohio and Pennsylvania. If he loses 1 or both of those then the Democratic Party has a major problem. How they deal with that is anyones guess.......but that's a topic I don't want to get into right now.
February 19th: Hawaii, Wisconsin
March 4th: Texas, Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island
March 8th: Wyoming
March 11th: Mississippi
April 22nd: Pennsylvania
May 6th: Indiana, North Carolina
May 13th: West Virginia
May 20th: Kentucky, Oregon
June 3rd: Montana, South Dakota
Potomac Primary Delegate Baseline
from MyDD....
Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.
Virginia (83 delegates)
Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6
Maryland (70 delegates)
Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6
Washington, DC (15 delegates)
Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1
It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.
Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.
Virginia (83 delegates)
Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6
Maryland (70 delegates)
Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6
Washington, DC (15 delegates)
Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1
It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.
The Rebel Girl
The begining of this video, is an audio narrative by Elizabeth Gurley Flynn, with images of her, as well as a quote of hers about women in the I.W.W. This Narative is commonly used on recordings to introduce the song "The Rebel Girl" in which Joe Hill dedicated to Elezabeth Guley Flynn. The second part, is the song "The Rebel Girl" Writen by Joe Hill, and performed by Hazel Dickens.
Emma Goldman: Well known anachist writer and feminist, took part in the IWW free speech fight during the first world war.
Helen Keller: Mostly known for her disability, was an active member of the I.W.W. and influential feminist.
Grace Silver: Mother of once famous actress Queen Silver. Active organizer in the I.W.W. Grace and Queen Silver were influental supporters of evolution, and athiests.
Lucy Parsons: Wife of Albert Parsons a haymarket Martyr, organizer for the I.W.W. and Communist Party.
Judi Bari: Radical enviromentalist, feminist, and member of the I.W.W. and Earth First. Victom of a failed assasination, later died of cancer.
Mother Jones: Helped form the I.W.W. in 1905. One of the most well known organizers, and active socailists of the day. She would most likely be annoyed that liberals have a magazine named after her.
Lesbia Harford: She was a well known poet in Australia, and a member of the Australian contingent of the I.W.W.
Amelia Siblich: Known as "Flaming Milka" due to her wearing red while at only 19 she helped lead a coal strike in Colorado.
Rosie Kane: Former member of the Scotish Parlement, member of the Scotish Socialist Party, and the I.W.W.
Caroline Leckie: (Same as above)
Dorothy Day: Member of the I.W.W. Formed the Anarchist organization "Catholic Workers".
Charlene Sato:(It's misspelled in the video) Member of the I.W.W. supporter of the Hawaiian-based LACASA, and
important in sociolinguistics.
Faith Petric: I.W.W. Member and folk singer.
Anne Feenley: I.W.W. Member and folk singer.
Charolotte Anita Whitney: As far as I know, had never joined the I.W.W. Yet was an active communist. Was arrested in California for making a speech on behalf of an I.W.W. member which violated an anti-syncialism law, established to crush the I.W.W.
Suley Ayala: I.W.W. Member who joined during recent organizing of Starbucks in New York City. She had faced religious persecution several times due to her faith as a Wiccan.
The rest of the photos are of random women in the I.W.W. (Names unkown). The first is at a Rally in 2007 in Seatle WA. The second is a Starbucks worker in New York City. The third is of two women in Scotland U.K. Fourth and Fifth.. Starbucks workers in NYC, and lastly is the logo for the I.W.W. Woman's Caucus.
Obama Cruising to Victory in Potomac Tuesday....and Wisconsin next week
WISCONSIN
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%
MARYLAND
ARG
Obama 55%
Clinton 38%
SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 32%
VIRGINIA
ARG
Obama 57%, Clinton 40%
SurveyUSA
Obama 60%
Clinton 38%
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%
MARYLAND
ARG
Obama 55%
Clinton 38%
SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 32%
VIRGINIA
ARG
Obama 57%, Clinton 40%
SurveyUSA
Obama 60%
Clinton 38%
Monday, February 11, 2008
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Obama campaign claims "irregularities" in Louisiana
Per the campaign's blog, under the headline: "After Widespread Reports of Voting Irregularities Obama Campaign Submits Urgent Request for Assistance:"
BATON ROUGE, LA -- The Obama campaign submitted an urgent request for assistance to the Secretary of State’s Division of Elections today, after receiving widespread reports from Democrats across Louisiana who reported that they were not allowed to vote because their party affiliation had been switched. Hundreds of Louisiana democrats went to the polls to vote in today’s presidential primary and found that they were now on registration lists as Independent or Unaffiliated voters.
Obama faced a similar hurdle in California, where some poll workers appear to have misinformed independents seeking to vote in the Democratic primary.
Choosing to go public with complaints, though, is always a political as well as a practical move, and it may increase the sense among some Obama supporters of Clinton dirty tricks -- something the Obama campaign isn't alleging in either case.
This primary, with its huge turnout and surging independent cadre, is really straining a very creaky elections system.
BATON ROUGE, LA -- The Obama campaign submitted an urgent request for assistance to the Secretary of State’s Division of Elections today, after receiving widespread reports from Democrats across Louisiana who reported that they were not allowed to vote because their party affiliation had been switched. Hundreds of Louisiana democrats went to the polls to vote in today’s presidential primary and found that they were now on registration lists as Independent or Unaffiliated voters.
Obama faced a similar hurdle in California, where some poll workers appear to have misinformed independents seeking to vote in the Democratic primary.
Choosing to go public with complaints, though, is always a political as well as a practical move, and it may increase the sense among some Obama supporters of Clinton dirty tricks -- something the Obama campaign isn't alleging in either case.
This primary, with its huge turnout and surging independent cadre, is really straining a very creaky elections system.
Friday, February 08, 2008
Predictions Results Map
A quick look back at MarxistGophers predictions for Super Tuesday.
The states I picked correctly before super tuesday are colored in the winning candidates colors, and the states where I picked incorrectly are in black. Not surprisingly, I did a little better with the Dems than I did with the Republicans. I guess I just don't understand Republican voters well enough......I'll have to work on that.
The states I picked correctly before super tuesday are colored in the winning candidates colors, and the states where I picked incorrectly are in black. Not surprisingly, I did a little better with the Dems than I did with the Republicans. I guess I just don't understand Republican voters well enough......I'll have to work on that.
More Polls in Upcoming States
The next week is looking good for Obama in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, DC, and Virginia. Then comes some tougher states, but I am surprised to see that Obama is trailing Clinton in Wisconsin by 9%. That could easily change in the next week though.
MARYLAND
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 52%
Clinton 33%
VIRGINIA
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%
Insider Advantage
Obama 52%
Clinton 37%
WISCONSIN
primary Tue. Feb. 19th
ARG
Clinton 50%
Obama 41%
MARYLAND
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 52%
Clinton 33%
VIRGINIA
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%
Insider Advantage
Obama 52%
Clinton 37%
WISCONSIN
primary Tue. Feb. 19th
ARG
Clinton 50%
Obama 41%
Presidential Primary Results by County
These are the updated results after the Super Tuesday states. New Mexico is still not reporting results for the Democrats, but I'll get that up as soon as they report.
Saturday is the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Nebraska, and the primary in Louisiana.
Saturday is the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Nebraska, and the primary in Louisiana.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Convention Delegate Fight Update
This is a post from Open Left that I'm republishing here because its awesome!
by: Chris Bowers
Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 13:17
After yesterday's explosive discussion on delegates and a brokered convention here on Open Left, I've been talking to some party insiders to try and get a better handle on the situation. Here is what I can report:
1. When Matt joked yesterday about preparing for "a party platform fight over mandates as a test of delegate strength," he was actually pretty on target. The fight over delegates will occur on three main committees: the platform committee, the credentials committee, and the rules committee. The fact is that right now there is not system in place to select delegates from Michigan and Florida, but the fight will encompass those three committees.
2. The rules committee is dominated by Clinton supporters, even though it was the rules committee that stripped the Michigan and Florida primaries as the means to select delegates from those two states. Be prepared for a change of direction from the rules committee. As James Boyce wrote yesterday: "[n]ote to Obama supporters, you better have enough delegates to win with those [Michigan and Florida] counting for Hillary, trust me on this. In fact, lawyer up now." Indeed, trust him on this one.
3. If Obama is going to turn back the rules committee, the credentials committee is the place where he needs to make his stand. That committee is, I believe, composed of three members from each state and all of the territories holding nomination contests (D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam, Democrats Abroad, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands). An additional twenty-five members are chosen by the presumptive nominee or, in the absence of a presumptive nominee, by Howard Dean himself. As such, this committee should be significantly less friendly to the Michigan and Florida demands from the Clinton campaign. I believe that the winner of each contest chooses the three members from each state and territory on the committee, but it isn't clear to me what "winner" means. For example, who won Nevada: Clinton who had the most state delegates, or Obama, who is projected to have the most national delegates? Even if that will be determined at a later date, then who won New Hampshire? Clinton won a plurality of the popular vote, the two campaigns were tied in pledged delegates, and Obama leads in the overall delegation from New Hampshire when super delegates are included. Still, since it seems Obama has a strong edge in smaller states and contests today, this committee should be favorable to him.
4. The Clinton campaign is trying to use super delegates as a firewall, so any hope of a deal on that front should also be scrapped (just as any hope for an early deal on Michigan and Florida should also be scrapped). From my perspective, it is of utmost importance that the Democratic nominee be the candidate who won the most votes and popular caucus support during the January 3rd to June 3rd nominating contests. I also think it is foolish to assume that super delegates will simply line up behind Obama if he narrowly wins the most pledged delegates (even with Michigan and Florida included), as long as Clinton can still win the nomination with the support of super delegates. As such, I think it is up to us to start a pressure campaign on super delegates to support whoever wins the most pledged delegates and popular support. This means to stop counting super delegates in delegate totals immediately, to emphasize the greater democratic value of pledged delegates, and to emphasize the notion that no Democratic nominee is the legitimate choice of the party's rank and file unless s/he wins the most pledged delegates (popular votes would be even better, of course, but some states are not counting the popular vote). We need to let the party's leaders know that anything else is unacceptable.
This is a murky process, and I will have more later today. I'm surprised at the interest my post generated yesterday, but let me just say that I'm not the only Democrat who sees a teetering mound of flaming wreckage appearing on the horizon. The Clinton campaign is not going to budge on either super delegates or their preferred mechanism for the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates, and they have a lot of insider support to get their way on both. It is up to us to make sure that the party has a legitimate nominee, and the will of the party's primary voters and caucus participants is not thwarted. Howard Dean needs to show some leadership on this one, too.
Update: The composition of the platform, rules, and credentials committees can be seen here. Also, commenter joejoejoe has more.
Yes We Can!
The Yes We Can Song
by will.i.am
I was sitting in my recording studio watching the debates...
Torn between the candidates
I was never really big on politics...
and actually I’m still not big on politics...
but 4 years ago, me and the black eyed peas supported Kerry...
And we supported Kerry with all our might...
We performed and performed and performed for the DNC...
doing all we could do to get the youth involved...
The outcome of the last 2 elections has saddened me...
on how unfair, backwards, upside down, unbalanced, untruthful,
corrupt, and just simply, how wrong the world and "politics" are...
So this year i wanted to get involved and do all i could early...
And i found myself torn...
because this time it’s not that simple...
our choices aren’t as clear as the last elections ...
last time it was so obvious...
Bush and war
vs
no Bush and no war...
But this time it’s not that simple...
and there are a lot of people that are torn just like i am...
So for awhile I put it off and i was going to wait until it was decided for me...
And then came New Hampshire...
And i was captivated...
Inspired...
I reflected on my life...
and the blessings I have...
and the people who fought for me to have these rights and blessings...
and I’m not talking about a "black thing"
I’m talking about a "human thing" me as a "person"
an American...
That speech made me think of Martin Luther King...
Kennedy...
and Lincoln...
and all the others that have fought for what we have today...
what America is "supposed" to be...
freedom...
equality...
and truth...
and thats not what we have today...
we think we are free...
but in reality terror and fear controls our decisions...
this is not the America that our pioneers and leaders fought and
died for...
and then there was New Hampshire
it was that speech...
like many great speeches...
that one moved me...
because words and ideas are powerful...
It made me think...
and realize that today we have "very few" leaders...
maybe none...
but that speech...
it inspired me...
it inspired me to look inside myself and outwards towards the world...
it inspired me to want to change myself to better the world...
and take a "leap" towards change...
and hope that others become inspired to do the same...
change themselves..
change their greed...
change their fears...
and if we "change that"
"then hey"..
we got something right...???...
1 week later after the speech settled in me...
I began making this song...
I came up with the idea to turn his speech into a song...
because that speech effected and touched my inner core like nothing in a very long time...
it spoke to me...
because words and ideas are powerful...
I just wanted to add a melody to those words...
I wanted the inspiration that was bubbling inside me to take over...
so i let it..
I wasn't afraid to stand for something...
to stand for "change"...
I wasn't afraid of "fear"...
it was pure inspiration...
so I called my friends...
and they called their friends...
in a matter of 2 days...
We made the song and video...
Usually this process would take months...
a bunch of record company people figuring out strategies and release dates...
interviews...
all that stuff...
but this time i took it in my own hands...
so i called my friends sarah pantera, mike jurkovac, fred goldring, and jesse dylan to help make it happen...
and they called their friends..
and we did it together in 48 hours...
and instead of putting it in the hands of profit we put it in the hands of inspiration...
then we put it on the net for the world to feel...
When you are truly inspired..
magic happens...
incredible things happen...
love happens..
(and with that combination)
"love, and inspiration"
change happens...
"change for the better"
Inspiration breeds change...
"Positive change"...
no one on this planet is truly experienced to handle the obstacles we face today...
Terror, fear, lies, agendas, politics, money, all the above...
It’s all scary...
Martin Luther King didn't have experience to lead...
Kennedy didn't have experience to lead...
Susan B. Anthony...
Nelson Mandella...
Rosa Parks...
Gandhi...
Anne Frank...
and everyone else who has had a hand in molding the freedoms we have and take for granted today...
no one truly has experience to deal with the world today...
they just need "desire, strength, courage ability, and passion" to change...
and to stand for something even when people say it's not possible...
America would not be here "today" if we didn’t stand and fight for
change "yesterday"...
Everything we have as a "people" is because of the "people" who fought for
change...
and whoever is the President has to realize we have a lot of changing to do
I'm not trying to convince people to see things how i do...
I produced this song to share my new found inspiration and how I've been moved...
I hope this song will make you feel...
love...
and think...
and be inspired just like the speech inspired me...
that’s all...
Let's all come together like America is supposed to...
Like Japan did after Hiroshima...
that was less than 65 years ago...
and look at Japan now...
they did it together...
they did it...
"We can't?...
Are you serious..?..
WE CAN!!!
Yes we can...
A United "America"
Democrats, Republicans and Independents together...
Building a new America
We can do it...
"TOGETHER"
Please visit www.yeswecansong.com
Thank you for reading and listening...
will.i.am
Looking Ahead to States after Super Tuesday
I think tonight will end in a virtual tie, sending the nomination into March. The rest of the primary season is state by state, which I think is an advantage to Obama. Coming up THIS SATURDAY is Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana. While there are no polls out yet in Lousiana or Nebraska, a SurveyUSA poll of Washington showed Obama with a 13 point lead, 53% TO 40% over Clinton. After that Maine has a caucus on Sunday the 10th, and then on Tuesday the 12th we have Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. By next Tuesday, we might have a clearer picture of who the nominee will be.
Republican Super Tuesday Predictions
In the interest of fairness I thought I'd make my predictions for the Republican Super Tuesday states as well. No one can ever accuse me of being partisan!
Final Super Tuesday Predictions from MarxistGopher
It looks like a split to me. Whoever wins the close states, it will be close...CLOSE. The delegate divide will be less than 100 and the race will continue on into March....which I think favors Obama. Given the polls released this morning my predictions may be a little conservative for Obama, but I'm a pessimist by nature.....
Looking Like A Good Day for Obama!
This is part of an article for Reuters. If this poll is anywhere near correct it suggests a huge Obama swing across the country that could make tonight decisive for an Obama victory! On the other hand, Zogby polls tend to favor Obama, and other polls suggest a much closer race or even a substantial Hillary lead in California......so who knows.
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama surged to a big lead over Hillary Clinton in California hours before "Super Tuesday" voting began in 24 states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
In the Republican race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held a 7-point advantage on Arizona Sen. John McCain in California, while McCain added to commanding double-digit leads in New York and New Jersey.
On a sprawling day of coast-to-coast voting, the biggest ever in a U.S. primary race, the U.S. presidential contenders in both parties were fighting to win a huge cache of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.
In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.
Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.
Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, are in a hard-fought battle for the Democratic presidential nomination and split the first four significant contests.
"There is clear Obama momentum in California," pollster John Zogby said. "But in New Jersey, things seemed to swing in favor of Clinton, and Missouri was very mixed."
-------------------------------------
US Democratic Party voters in Indonesia, where Barack Obama spent part of his childhood, handed him a win over Hillary Clinton in the first voting abroad on "Super Tuesday," party officials said.
Seventy-five percent of nearly 100 votes cast by expatriate Americans just past midnight (1700 GMT Monday) went to Obama and 25 percent went to Clinton, Democrats Abroad officials here said.
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama surged to a big lead over Hillary Clinton in California hours before "Super Tuesday" voting began in 24 states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
In the Republican race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held a 7-point advantage on Arizona Sen. John McCain in California, while McCain added to commanding double-digit leads in New York and New Jersey.
On a sprawling day of coast-to-coast voting, the biggest ever in a U.S. primary race, the U.S. presidential contenders in both parties were fighting to win a huge cache of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.
In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.
Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.
Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, are in a hard-fought battle for the Democratic presidential nomination and split the first four significant contests.
"There is clear Obama momentum in California," pollster John Zogby said. "But in New Jersey, things seemed to swing in favor of Clinton, and Missouri was very mixed."
-------------------------------------
US Democratic Party voters in Indonesia, where Barack Obama spent part of his childhood, handed him a win over Hillary Clinton in the first voting abroad on "Super Tuesday," party officials said.
Seventy-five percent of nearly 100 votes cast by expatriate Americans just past midnight (1700 GMT Monday) went to Obama and 25 percent went to Clinton, Democrats Abroad officials here said.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Obama Surging in all States in Latest Polls
Massachusetts
Suffolk Univ.
Obama 46%
Clinton 44%
Connecticut
SurveyUSA
Obama 48%
Clinton 46%
New Jersey
SurveyUSA
Clinton 52%
Obama 41%
Zogby
Clinton 43%
Obama 43%
New York
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 38%
Illinois
SurveyUSA
Obama 66%
Clinton 30%
California
Zogby
Obama 46%
Clinton 40%
Missouri
Zogby
Obama 47%
Clinton 42%
Georgia
Zogby
Obama 48%
Clinton 31%
Suffolk Univ.
Obama 46%
Clinton 44%
Connecticut
SurveyUSA
Obama 48%
Clinton 46%
New Jersey
SurveyUSA
Clinton 52%
Obama 41%
Zogby
Clinton 43%
Obama 43%
New York
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 38%
Illinois
SurveyUSA
Obama 66%
Clinton 30%
California
Zogby
Obama 46%
Clinton 40%
Missouri
Zogby
Obama 47%
Clinton 42%
Georgia
Zogby
Obama 48%
Clinton 31%
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Gerald Patrick Hemming Dies at 71
Feb 1, 2008: Gerald Patrick Hemming, founder of InterPen and a continual subject of interest among JFK assassination researchers, died on Jan 29 at the age of 71. For more information on Hemming, see his Spartacus Educational page, a biographical form at Gordon Winslow's cuban-exile.com, FBI files on Hemming made available to the HSCA, and Hemming's HSCA testimony at History Matters. The HSCA's Segregated Collection of CIA files contains voluminous material on Hemming. In this Youtube video interview, Hemming repeats his claim that he was repeatedly offered money to assassinate President Kennedy.
Gerald Patrick Hemming, Jr., a swashbuckling six-foot five ex-Marine turned soldier-of-fortune, who personally knew many of the prominent personages of the tumultuous sixties, and whose name appears with regularity in the books and articles on the Kennedy assassination, died Monday at his home in Fayetteville, North Carolina after a lengthy illness. Born in Los Angeles on March 1, 1937, Hemming was 71.
After he left the Marine Corp in the fall of 1958, Hemming travelled to Cuba and assist the newly formed Castro government in military training. In Cuba, Hemming worked as an instructor in a Cuban parachute regiment and was later named adjutant of the San Julien air base. Hemming claims while at San Julien he thwarted an assassination attempt by a disgruntled Cuban soldier who intended to shoot against Fidel Castro while he toured the air base with Soviet envoy Anderi Mikoyan.
In Cuba, Hemming met and worked with another American named William Morgan who in April 1961 was brutally executed by Castro forces for being a traitor. Hemming stated that he met Jack Ruby at Morgan's residence. Morgan's US citizenship was restored in 2007. In Cuba he also met Frank Fiorini, also known as Frank Sturgis who gained notoriety in 1974 as one of the Watergate burglars.
Hemming met and liked Che Guevera who he described as a man of his word. Hemming claimed he had a secret meeting with Guevera during the height of the Cuban missile crisis.
Hemming fled Cuba in the fall of 1960 and was extensively debriefed by the CIA regarding Castro's military operations. He then started a paramilitary organization named Intercontinental Penetration Force or Interpen, which trained first in the Everglades and later on No Name Key, a small, mosquito-infested island thirty miles north of Key West. The group was sometimes known as "Patrick's raiders".
Hemming's group was heavily funded by right-wing Caribbean dictators but some believe there was secret funding from the CIA. Hemming claimed to be reporting to James Jesus Angleton, the controversial chief of the CIA's Counterintelligence arm. Hemming also had familial ties to the intelligence community: his uncle had been a business partner with John McCone, JFK's Director of the CIA.
In December 1962, Hemming and a dozen of his Interpen group were arrested in the Florida Keys shortly before leaving on a secret mission to Cuba. Jailed overnight in Key West, the group was bailed out by a Miami attorney who flew them to Miami on a chartered seaplane. Hemming stated that when they arrived in Miami, Oswald attempted to infiltrate their group but Hemming instructed his men to remove Oswald. Several months later when Hemming and his lawyer participated in a Miami radio talk show, a man identifying himself as Lee Oswald called the show. A week after the assassination, the talk show host reported the incident to the FBI. In 1978, Hemming testified to the House Select Committee on Assassinations that he had met Lee Harvey Oswald outside the Cuban Consulate in January 1959, was suspicious of Oswald's motives and the information he was seeking. Subsequently, Hemming advised his Cuban friends to get rid of Oswald.
On bail restriction arising from the arrest in the Florida Keys, Hemming was unable to return to Los Angeles for a Christmas reunion with his family. A short time thereafter, his father, who owned a television repair shop, died. Hemming always regretted missing that last Christmas with his father. He told one writer that for months after his father died he would call his father's business after hours just to listen to his father's voice on the recorded announcement of the business hours.
In March of 1963, Hemming traveled to Dallas, Texas seeking financial support for his Interpen group. One of the person contacted included former Gen. Edwin Walker, who was shot at by Lee Oswald a few weeks later.
Hemming testified to the HSCA that in the summer of 1963 he was personally offered money to arrange the murder of JFK; specifying one such offer was made in the home of New Orleans private investigator Guy Banister and another in the Dallas Petroleum Club.
In the late 1980s Hemming and two of his Interpen associates served as consultants to Oliver Stone's movie "JFK". He can be seen briefly in the film as the man co-coordinating the assassination. Although some speculate that members of Interpen may have been involved in the assassination, Hemming always denied that charge, but has suggested that several years later he learned the details of the assassination from persons who were involved. Among his controversial claims was that Kennedy assassination was funded in part by members of the family of Rafeal Trujillo, the Dominican Republic dictator assassinated in April 1961, and that there was a separate shooter in the Texas School Book Depository with a contract to kill Governor John Connally. He also claimed that the conspirators had planted a bomb in a car parked near the triple underpass that could have been used to blow up the entire presidential limousine had the shooters been unable to deliver a fatal head shot.
Hemming may have given us the answer to some of the mysteries of the assassination. For instance, he has identified the Mexico City mystery man as German born Mario Tauler Sague, recruited for the CIA by Bill Harvey while Harvey was the Berlin station chief. Sague was involved in one of the earliest attempts on Castro's life.
At the conference in Dallas, Hemming claimed to know Sylvia Odio's visitors were. He stated that one of them had once saved his life. In 2005, he finally revealed the names. The man who saved his life was Angelo Murgado, the "Angel" in the Odio story, and "Leopoldo" was Bernardo DeTorres, a name familiar to most students of the assassination. The names were first publicly identified in an article written by Mark Howell and Tim Gratz for the Key West Citizen. Murgado was interviewed in person by Prof Joan Mellen (in the presence of Hemming) and she tells the story in her book "A Farewell to Justice". Murgado was also interviewed by David Talbot for his book "Brothers". In "Brothers", Talbot states that Murgado told him that he, Murgado, had shown Robert F Kennedy the newspaper article and photo of Lee Oswald passing out literature in New Orleans, leading to the disturbing conclusion that when RFK learned of the arrest of Oswald for the murder of his brother, he recognized Oswald's name and photo.
Howard K. Davis, who served as an Army ranger in the Korean War and worked with the Castro forces in 1958 before the abdication of Batista, was the second in command of the Interpen group and worked closely with Hemming for many years. Davis, who now works for Homeland Security at the Miami airport, said of Hemming, "Hemming was at heart an idealist who longed for freedom for the Cuban people and like so many was disappointed that Castro betrayed the stated goals of his revolution. Gerry loved the Cuban people, spoke Spanish fluently and he is remembered with great fondness in the Cuban exile community. He named one of his sons after a Cuban exile who paid the ultimate sacrifice in the fight against Castro."
Hemming has been interviewed by various JFK researchers, and was a featured speaker at the JFK Lancer November in Dallas Conference in 1996. Hemming's HSCA testimony given on June 17, 1993, was donated by Noel Twyman to JFK Lancer for distribution. There are many who believe that most of Hemming's stories were nothing but the creation of a clever mind while others are equally confident that he carried some secrets of the assassination to his grave. Perhaps the epitaph that should appear on his grave is the description once given him by an assassination writer: "Valedictorian in a Guerilla Suit.
Friday, February 01, 2008
Commentary on Oswald's Ghost
This is taken from Mary Ferrell.
Robert Stone's film Oswald's Ghost aired on PBS recently, earning rave reviews from some and less-than-favorable response from others. The film grapples with the effect of the JFK assassination on American society, though leaves the strong impression that the resulting tumult was unnecessary, as Oswald killed JFK by himself.
Mainstream sources' positive reviews include the Boston Globe, LA Times, Dallas Morning News, and Miami Herald.
Here are a few longer pieces which take issue with the film from different perspectives:
Kennedy's Ghost, by Rex Bradford.
Oswald's Ghost, by Jim DiEugenio.
What Oswald Wrought: Lament of a Generation, by Max Holland.
Night at the Museum, by David Lifton.
See also this piece by David D'Arcy: Robert Stone and Oswald's Ghost, which includes an interview with the filmmaker where Stone voices more directly some of his thoughts on the assassination.
Robert Stone's film Oswald's Ghost aired on PBS recently, earning rave reviews from some and less-than-favorable response from others. The film grapples with the effect of the JFK assassination on American society, though leaves the strong impression that the resulting tumult was unnecessary, as Oswald killed JFK by himself.
Mainstream sources' positive reviews include the Boston Globe, LA Times, Dallas Morning News, and Miami Herald.
Here are a few longer pieces which take issue with the film from different perspectives:
Kennedy's Ghost, by Rex Bradford.
Oswald's Ghost, by Jim DiEugenio.
What Oswald Wrought: Lament of a Generation, by Max Holland.
Night at the Museum, by David Lifton.
See also this piece by David D'Arcy: Robert Stone and Oswald's Ghost, which includes an interview with the filmmaker where Stone voices more directly some of his thoughts on the assassination.
Gophers in Rivals Top 5 Surprise Recruiting Classes
Every year it seems that the usual suspects are always near the top of the Rivals.com team rankings. With the success on the field, it's no surprise to see teams like Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC and LSU always up there with the best of the best.
But each recruiting year, there's a crop of surprise teams that come out of nowhere and finish with great classes. Rivals.com takes a look at the five biggest surprises in recruiting this season.
RIVALS5: RECRUITING SURPRISES
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Current Class Rank: No. 35 overall, No. 9 in Big 12
It's hard to call the Jayhawks a surprise in anything anymore as this season's effort on the field proved that. There is no question that the Kansas coaching staff has a great eye for talent. They've taken players that were lightly recruited in some cases or needed a little extra time to develop, and transformed them into all-conference players. But this year, the Jayhawks took some major strides, riding the wave of momentum of the Orange Bowl victory, and will finish with the highest ranked class in Mark Mangino's time in Lawrence. The Hawks did a great job in their own backyard, snagging four of the top nine players in the state. Plus, they did some major damage with key junior college players like national offensive player of the year, running back Jocques Crawford.
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Current Class Rank: No. 25 overall, No. 4 in Big Ten
Tim Brewster and his staff have flat out gotten it done this recruiting season. It was just over a year ago that Brewster was brought on board, and even with the struggling season, Minnesota football has made tremendous strides in the recruiting wars. The Golden Gophers under Brewster have a legit shot at finishing in the national top 25 – something that's never been done before at Minnesota. Stars like MarQueis Gray at quarterback, Brandon Green and Vincent Hill at receiver and Traye Simmons in the defensive backfield could be household names in the Big Ten rather quickly. And so should Minnesota's losing seasons.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Current Class Rank: No. 21 overall, No. 1 in Big East
The Panthers have to rank right at the top as one of the most pleasant surprises nationally this recruiting season. Not only did they make strides on the field late in the season, they've continued to make strides forward in the recruiting wars. Landing five-star receiver Jonathan Baldwin is something that should help spark the offense even more next season. And they've done a tremendous job also on the defensive side of the ball with guys like Shayne Hale expecting to compete for early time. Their offensive line is also going to get a big boost with Lucas Nix coming aboard.
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Current Class Rank: No. 49 overall, No. 1 in CUSA
The Golden Eagles have made tremendous strides rather quickly under new coach Larry Fedora. Fedora assembled a great coaching staff that features great coaches and great recruiters like Tony Hughes and Darrell Wyatt. The Eagles are going to finish ahead of several quality teams from the Big 12, ACC, Big East and Pac 10. Wyatt is most well known for recruiting Adrian Peterson to Oklahoma, but his effort at Southern Miss quickly garnered a lot of attention. And Hughes quickly reeled in many of the Eagles top prospects, including star linemen Willie Packer and Quin Sanford. While this class might not register in the top 25, there is definitely a new team to watch out for in Conference USA and things are going to be more difficult for out of state teams to come into Mississippi and get kids away.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Current Class Rank: No. 22 overall, No. 5 in Pac-10
Tyrone Willingham is flat out getting it done in Seattle this recruiting season. UDub might shock some people to be where its ranked, but it shouldn't be a true surprise because the Huskies have a tremendous recruiting base to recruit to – major urban area, great facilities, good tradition and a great fan base. The Huskies have done most of their damage this season in the Northwest with the key additions of stars like Kavario Middleton, Everrette Thompson, Alameda Ta'amu. But stealing Chris Polk away from USC also had to be exciting for the UDub coaches. The Huskies have a young nucleus to work with and adding even more high-level talent from this year's class is sure to help them be even more competitive in the Pac-10.
But each recruiting year, there's a crop of surprise teams that come out of nowhere and finish with great classes. Rivals.com takes a look at the five biggest surprises in recruiting this season.
RIVALS5: RECRUITING SURPRISES
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Current Class Rank: No. 35 overall, No. 9 in Big 12
It's hard to call the Jayhawks a surprise in anything anymore as this season's effort on the field proved that. There is no question that the Kansas coaching staff has a great eye for talent. They've taken players that were lightly recruited in some cases or needed a little extra time to develop, and transformed them into all-conference players. But this year, the Jayhawks took some major strides, riding the wave of momentum of the Orange Bowl victory, and will finish with the highest ranked class in Mark Mangino's time in Lawrence. The Hawks did a great job in their own backyard, snagging four of the top nine players in the state. Plus, they did some major damage with key junior college players like national offensive player of the year, running back Jocques Crawford.
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Current Class Rank: No. 25 overall, No. 4 in Big Ten
Tim Brewster and his staff have flat out gotten it done this recruiting season. It was just over a year ago that Brewster was brought on board, and even with the struggling season, Minnesota football has made tremendous strides in the recruiting wars. The Golden Gophers under Brewster have a legit shot at finishing in the national top 25 – something that's never been done before at Minnesota. Stars like MarQueis Gray at quarterback, Brandon Green and Vincent Hill at receiver and Traye Simmons in the defensive backfield could be household names in the Big Ten rather quickly. And so should Minnesota's losing seasons.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Current Class Rank: No. 21 overall, No. 1 in Big East
The Panthers have to rank right at the top as one of the most pleasant surprises nationally this recruiting season. Not only did they make strides on the field late in the season, they've continued to make strides forward in the recruiting wars. Landing five-star receiver Jonathan Baldwin is something that should help spark the offense even more next season. And they've done a tremendous job also on the defensive side of the ball with guys like Shayne Hale expecting to compete for early time. Their offensive line is also going to get a big boost with Lucas Nix coming aboard.
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Current Class Rank: No. 49 overall, No. 1 in CUSA
The Golden Eagles have made tremendous strides rather quickly under new coach Larry Fedora. Fedora assembled a great coaching staff that features great coaches and great recruiters like Tony Hughes and Darrell Wyatt. The Eagles are going to finish ahead of several quality teams from the Big 12, ACC, Big East and Pac 10. Wyatt is most well known for recruiting Adrian Peterson to Oklahoma, but his effort at Southern Miss quickly garnered a lot of attention. And Hughes quickly reeled in many of the Eagles top prospects, including star linemen Willie Packer and Quin Sanford. While this class might not register in the top 25, there is definitely a new team to watch out for in Conference USA and things are going to be more difficult for out of state teams to come into Mississippi and get kids away.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Current Class Rank: No. 22 overall, No. 5 in Pac-10
Tyrone Willingham is flat out getting it done in Seattle this recruiting season. UDub might shock some people to be where its ranked, but it shouldn't be a true surprise because the Huskies have a tremendous recruiting base to recruit to – major urban area, great facilities, good tradition and a great fan base. The Huskies have done most of their damage this season in the Northwest with the key additions of stars like Kavario Middleton, Everrette Thompson, Alameda Ta'amu. But stealing Chris Polk away from USC also had to be exciting for the UDub coaches. The Huskies have a young nucleus to work with and adding even more high-level talent from this year's class is sure to help them be even more competitive in the Pac-10.
Update on MarxistGophers Super Tuesday Predictions
I wanted to post an update to my Super Tuesday predictions before I go home. I have Obama picking up Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota, but I flipped California back to Clinton. Obviously, given the number of delegates involved, this is not good for Obama if this scenario plays out. Keep in mind, however, that the Democratic primary isn't winner-take-all in states. Delegates are awarded proportionally. I think it's shaping up for a Hillary lead coming out of Super Tuesday, but it won't be a crushing blow that will knock Obama out of the race. Which means this could continue into March. The only question will be what size the Hillary lead is in delegates after Super Tuesday. If it's close Obama will still have a realistic chance, but if Hillary can open a bit of a lead Obama isn't likely to catch her....
2004 Democratic Primary Vote by County
Another in my continuing series of political maps. The 2004 Democratic primary wasn't that interesting after Iowa, but I thought it would be cool to compare it to the 2008 map that is still in the making.
If anyone has any requests for other maps you want to see me do, please let me know in the comments section of this post.
If anyone has any requests for other maps you want to see me do, please let me know in the comments section of this post.
UPDATE: Republican Primary Vote by County
I've updated the map to show the correct county breakdown in Wyoming. We finally get Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter on the map!! The Republican caucuses in Maine are tonight, so I should have another update tomorrow.
Pledged Democratic Delegates Proportional Map
I found this on wikipedia and had to post it. Why make my own when it already exists.....
Democratic Primary Super Tuesday States
For those who don't know I created this lovely map showing the 22 states that will be voting on Super Tuesday (February 5th), along with the number of delegates at stake in each state. None of the delegates are awarded in winner take all format, as some of the republican states are, but are all proportionally awarded.
Here are my predictions for the upcoming Super Tuesday vote. I think I'm being slightly favorable to Obama, and this still shows a Hillary "win" on Tuesday. This is depressing....
Here are my predictions for the upcoming Super Tuesday vote. I think I'm being slightly favorable to Obama, and this still shows a Hillary "win" on Tuesday. This is depressing....
Thursday, January 31, 2008
2006 Minnesota Senate Vote by County
Since I did the 2006 Minnesota Governor's race earlier today I thought it would be an easy transition to the 2006 Senate race where Amy Klobuchar destroyed Mark Kennedy. Enjoy!
2006 Minnesota Governor's Race by County
In my continuing series of political maps, we step back in time to the 2006 governor's race in MN. Pawlenty defeated Mike Hatch in a very tight race.
Polls, Polls, Polls
Thought I'd post some recent poll results that have come out since the Florida primary. They all show Obama closing the gap with Clinton, but don't show him going ahead. If this is indeed the trend, and it continues through Super Tuesday it could be a very good day for Obama. It's very hard to keep this kind of momentum going for any period of time. It should be noted, however, that all of these numbers are before John Edwards announced he was dropping out of the race. And we don't yet know how that will affect the race.
California (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 40
McCain - 32
Romney - 28
Huckabee - 11
Connecticut (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 40
Obama - 40
Edwards - 11
McCain - 42
Romney - 26
Giuliani - 12
Illinois (Rasmussen)
McCain - 34
Romney - 26
Huckabee - 16
Massachusetts (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 37
New York (PPP)
Clinton - 45
Obama - 33
Edwards - 10
McCain - 34
Giuliani - 20
Romney - 19
Tennessee (PPP)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 32
Edwards - 16
Huckabee - 30
McCain - 26
Romney - 22
Minnesota (MPR/Humphrey Institute)
Clinton - 40
Obama - 33
Edwards - 12
Undecided - 13
Other - 2
McCain - 41
Huckabee - 22
Romney - 17
Guiliani - 6
Paul - 5
Undecided - 10
Election day is still more than nine months away, and the presidential nominees are far from decided. But Larry Jacobs said the poll results on head-to-head match ups show Minnesota could heavily favor the Democratic candidate in November.
"Obama and Clinton have opened up sizeable double digit leads over all the Republican candidates," Jacobs said. "Obama is ahead of McCain by 13 points. Clinton has got a 10 point advantage over McCain. And then when you turn to the Huckabee and Romney and Giuliani matchups, the leads are substantially larger."
California (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 40
McCain - 32
Romney - 28
Huckabee - 11
Connecticut (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 40
Obama - 40
Edwards - 11
McCain - 42
Romney - 26
Giuliani - 12
Illinois (Rasmussen)
McCain - 34
Romney - 26
Huckabee - 16
Massachusetts (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 37
New York (PPP)
Clinton - 45
Obama - 33
Edwards - 10
McCain - 34
Giuliani - 20
Romney - 19
Tennessee (PPP)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 32
Edwards - 16
Huckabee - 30
McCain - 26
Romney - 22
Minnesota (MPR/Humphrey Institute)
Clinton - 40
Obama - 33
Edwards - 12
Undecided - 13
Other - 2
McCain - 41
Huckabee - 22
Romney - 17
Guiliani - 6
Paul - 5
Undecided - 10
Election day is still more than nine months away, and the presidential nominees are far from decided. But Larry Jacobs said the poll results on head-to-head match ups show Minnesota could heavily favor the Democratic candidate in November.
"Obama and Clinton have opened up sizeable double digit leads over all the Republican candidates," Jacobs said. "Obama is ahead of McCain by 13 points. Clinton has got a 10 point advantage over McCain. And then when you turn to the Huckabee and Romney and Giuliani matchups, the leads are substantially larger."
California: Clinton 43%, Obama 40%
More evidence of Obama gaining on Hillary in California and nationally. This is from Rasmusson Reports...
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow three-percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The survey was conducted in the hours immediately following Florida’s Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race.
Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by five percentage points in California.
The survey found Edwards with 9% of the vote while 4% said they would vote for some other candidate and another 4% were not sure.
Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party’s liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.
Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.
Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women.
Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of California’s Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 79%.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the state’s voters were certain they had settled on their final choice. That meant nearly a third could still change their mind, a figure that grew when Edwards left the race.
Forty-six percent (46%) said the top voting issue is the economy while 29% mentioned the War in Iraq. Clinton led by fifteen among those who view the economy as the highest priority. Obama led by eight among those who view the War as the top voting issue.
A Rasmussen Reports analysis of the Democratic race notes that “The numbers still favor Clinton. But, as every sports fan knows, sometimes the numbers don’t matter. Sometimes things just fall into place for an upset. More often than not, the underdog comes up a bit short—but not always.”
Clinton continues to hold a modest lead over Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Obama closing on Hillary in CA and Nationally; Ties in Connecticut
from SFGate.com:
On the Democratic side, the combined results of three nightly samplings of 400 different voters - for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday - found Hillary Rodham Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and John Edwards at 12 percent.
But when taken alone, Sunday's tracking - just a day after Obama's big win in the South Carolina primary - had Obama leading Clinton, 35 percent to 32 percent, with Edwards' share growing to 16 percent. And pretty much the same numbers came up Monday.
One caveat: A prominent political consultant following the numbers emphasizes that while a single night's tracking isn't considered statistically reliable, it does show movement and direction.
Any way you slice it, the source says, the presidential race here is definitely heating up.
Nationally, a Gallop poll shows Obama closing to within 6 points of Hillary, and in CT a Rasmusson poll shows a tie at 40% to 40%.
2008 Presidential Primary Vote by County
I put this together over the last few days. It shows the winners county by county in the states that have voted so far in the presidential primary.
On the Democratic side, Michigan and Florida were uncontested "beauty contests." Both states moved their primaries up against the wishes of the National Democratic Party and all candidates agreed not to campaign there. In Michigan, Hillary was the only one on the ballot and uncommitted was the only alternative. In Florida, Hillary was the only one to campaign there even though all three were on the ballot. I hope that helps to explain the Hillary "anomalies" in those states. Wether or not delegates from those states will be seated could lead to a huge credentials fight at the convention. There is an extended discussion of the Michigan and Florida situation on electoral-vote.
On the Republican side, the party settled the dispute with those states by cutting their delegate numbers in half, instead of eliminating them as the Democrats did. In Wyoming there was no total vote number, only the results of the county conventions delegates awarded (Romney-8, F. Thompson-3, D. Hunter-1). So I decided to just color the entire state for Romney since we don't know actual vote numbers.
I will be updating the maps and posting them as the primaries continue. The next update will be on February 6th, after super-duper Tuesday.
On the Democratic side, Michigan and Florida were uncontested "beauty contests." Both states moved their primaries up against the wishes of the National Democratic Party and all candidates agreed not to campaign there. In Michigan, Hillary was the only one on the ballot and uncommitted was the only alternative. In Florida, Hillary was the only one to campaign there even though all three were on the ballot. I hope that helps to explain the Hillary "anomalies" in those states. Wether or not delegates from those states will be seated could lead to a huge credentials fight at the convention. There is an extended discussion of the Michigan and Florida situation on electoral-vote.
On the Republican side, the party settled the dispute with those states by cutting their delegate numbers in half, instead of eliminating them as the Democrats did. In Wyoming there was no total vote number, only the results of the county conventions delegates awarded (Romney-8, F. Thompson-3, D. Hunter-1). So I decided to just color the entire state for Romney since we don't know actual vote numbers.
I will be updating the maps and posting them as the primaries continue. The next update will be on February 6th, after super-duper Tuesday.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
UIC Workers Vote to Authorize Strike
from Fight Back News Service
By Joe Iosbaker
Chicago, IL - From Jan. 15 to Jan. 23, hundreds of clerical and administrative workers at UIC (University of Illinois - Chicago) turned out for a strike authorization vote. 94% of them supported the call from their elected bargaining committee to walk out of work if negotiations fail to reach an agreement.
The workers, members of Local 73 SEIU (Service Employees International Union) have gone without a contract raise for over two years. Sirlena Perry, a member of the bargaining committee as well as Local 73's executive board, said, "We've never had a strike at UIC, but we can't accept what's on the table. There is no raise for the first year, no retro pay back to the August start date of this contract year and no language to give us job security."
Another major issue is the disparity in wages between the Chicago campus and the sites in Rockford and Peoria. For many years, Chicago workers had been paid less than those at the campus in downstate Urbana. After a decade long fight to win parity for Chicago, the workers at the other sites are striving for this goal as well.
Bargaining is scheduled with a federal mediator on Feb. 6. If this fails to bring the two sides together, the union will go forward with their plans. To show their determination, many of the voting workers wore on their lapels a sticker that read, "UIC won't work without us!"
KS WR Brodrick Smith commits to Gophers
3-star WR Brodrick Smith from Garden City, KS committed to the Gopher Football program yesterday after a long recruiting process. Smith was also recruited by Nebraska, Arizona, Kansas State, Illinois, and Oregon. Smith is the 4th WR in the 2008 class, the 17th 3-star recruit, and the 30th commitment overall.
This is really looking like an impressive class for Tim Brewster.
Signing day is February 6th.
Kennedys, roaring crowds give Obama rally '60s feel
Reuters
By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With Kennedys on the stage and Beatlemania-like screams from the crowd, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's campaign stop on Monday took on the aura of the early 1960s.
As members of the prominent political family took turns endorsing the Illinois senator, their words were often swallowed up by ear-piercing screams from the crowd of several thousand gathered in a gymnasium at American University.
Like the ecstatic throngs that welcomed the Beatles when they first visited America, the cheers of thousands of young supporters often outmatched the voices of those holding the microphone.
They emptied their lungs at every mention of Obama's name, drowning out Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy, his son U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island and Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the slain President John Kennedy.
After the rally, Sen. Kennedy and Obama gave a second speech to hundreds who had waited for hours outside in the cold, shut out of the packed arena.
"We love you Obama!" young women screamed from nearby dormitory windows.
Obama, who would be the first black president, hopes America's best-known political dynasty will help him fend off rival Hillary Clinton, who would establish a dynasty of her own if she took the White House eight years after her husband Bill left it.
Several in the crowd said they were turned off by the Clintons' attempts to paint Obama as "the black candidate" over the past two weeks.
"You didn't need to bring that into the equation," said retiree Carol Belkin, 62, who said she had planned to support Clinton until last week. "I want to see this country brought together. I think the pair of them are divisive."
"I thought it was really below the belt," said Howard University graduate student Anita Wheeler, 24.
Obama's charisma and youth have drawn comparisons to the late President Kennedy, who in 1963 delivered a famous speech at the same school calling for a ban on nuclear weapons testing.
Obama offered no new policy proposals as he devoted much of his 15-minute speech to praise of the Kennedys.
But he also made sure to ask for the votes of those in the crowd -- an unusual event for a national politician in the capital city, which has no representation in Congress and rarely plays a crucial role in presidential races.
This year could be different. Along with neighboring states Virginia and Maryland, Washington's primary is scheduled for February 12 and many observers expect the race will still be competitive at that point.
"My vote's going to matter for a change," said chef and Washington resident Karen Hayes, 42.
For others, seeing Obama in person seemed to be enough.
"You know how close I was to him?" gushed one young woman as she showed off her digital photos to a friend. "I was, like, right there!"
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Caroline Kennedy Endorses Obama: 'A President Like My Father'
The 51-year-old daughter of President John F. Kennedy has written a poignant Op-Ed endorsement of Barack Obama appearing in Sunday's The New York Times that is certain to resonate with voters of a certain generation for whom JFK is an icon, as well, perhaps, with voters not born for decades after he was murdered.
OVER the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.
My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals. ...
We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960. ...
I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.
OVER the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.
My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals. ...
We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960. ...
I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Sneak Peek at TCF Bank Stadium Virtual Tour
Virtual Locker Room Tour
From Gophersports.com:
February 6 will be an exciting day for Golden Gopher football fans. In addition to the Signing Day 'Sota Social to introduce the 2008 recruiting class, fans will get an in-depth look at the new home of Golden Gopher Football - TCF Bank Stadium - with a comprehensive virtual tour. In anticipation of that day, Gophersports.com is offering a sneak peek of the virtual tour. Check out the new Golden Gopher Football Locker Room!
The virtual tour of TCF Bank Stadium will give Golden Gopher fans a birds' eye view of the entire exterior/interior of the stadium, in addition to the suites, the DQ Club room, the indoor club seating and the new home of the marching band.
The Signing Day 'Sota Social will be held in the Gibson-Nagurski football complex and will begin at 5 p.m.
ESPN's Coverage of the Gopher Football Recruiting Class
This is from the ESPN analysis of all the Big Ten recruiting classes.
Minnesota
Signing Day Storylines: Signing day is a big day for Gopher fans. After a miserable 1-11 first season, head coach Tim Brewster gets to unveil his first real class. Lauded for his recruiting abilities, he has worked hard to not disappoint, planting roots in Minnesota and going nationwide looking for talent. Minnesota has landed at least one verbal from prep prospects in 11 states outside of Minnesota, spanning from California to Florida. Brewster and his staff have shown a work-hard attitude recruiting the nation as they try to right the Gopher ship.
While strides were made to assemble a good class, Minnesota did miss out on some of the top in-state prep prospects, and this will be an area that needs to improve moving forward. The Gophers did land five in-state verbal commitments in their current class of 21. A possible addition is Under Armour All-American Keanon Cooper (Dallas/Skyline), an athletic defender who could help a poor Gopher defense.
With a strong stable of young quarterbacks, MarQueis Gray should have time to adapt to the college game.
Top Prospect: For the second straight year it looks like Minnesota's No. 1 prospect will be a quarterback. Last year it was Brewster's son Clint, the No. 8 rated quarterback, and this year it is MarQueis Gray (Indianapolis/Ben Davis), the No. 13 rated signal caller. With freshman Adam Weber taking snaps in 2007, Minnesota must be applying the thought that competition is good and you have never have enough talented quarterbacks.
Gray will make for interesting quarterback battles as he has good tools and size. He is a good athlete but is a pocket passer first. He has solid arm strength and flashes good touch. He is also athletic enough to tuck and run and create when plays break down. He still needs to develop his game and improve his mechanics but has good upside. With Weber and Brewster on campus, Minnesota can likely bring Gray along.
Class Highlights: This will be a big class currently with the 21 prep commits and seven JUCO additions in addition to Notre Dame transfer offensive guard Matt Carufel. Four junior college prospects already signed may be able to help right away, especially on defense.
On the prep front, Jewhan Edwards (Philadelphia/Roman Catholic) heads a pair of defensive tackle pledges ready to help a run defense that ranked 114th. Edwards, a big and explosive interior defender, could be a steal if he can take care of the little things on and off the field. The defense also has a verbal from No. 22-ranked inside linebacker Sam Maresh (Champion Park, Minn.), an in-state product. Maresh physically looks ready to play and could also help a porous run defense.
Two outside linebackers -- Spencer Reeves (Dallas/Skyline), a high school teammate of Gopher target Keanon Cooper and Florida native Gary Tinsley (Jacksonville, Fla./First Coast) -- should help. Tinsley could also be used as a rush end and help the Gophers get pressure on the quarterback after ranking 116th nationally in sacks. Minnesota's defensive woes also spread to coverage as they ranked 115th in pass defense and 116th in pass efficiency defense. With that in mind, it has have targeted secondary help. Another Dallas Skyline addition is the athletic Troy Stoudermire, who could play wide receiver or corner, but his talents may be better used on defense. Another solid corner pick-up is Jonathan Dandridge (Detroit/Highland Park).
On offense, WR Brandon Green (Chicago/Paul Robeson) is a speedy, reliable target with good athleticism.
Could See the Field in 2008: Any of the JUCO additions (especially those already on campus), WR Green, DT Edwards, LB Maresh and several others as there are holes to fill, especially on defense.
Minnesota
Signing Day Storylines: Signing day is a big day for Gopher fans. After a miserable 1-11 first season, head coach Tim Brewster gets to unveil his first real class. Lauded for his recruiting abilities, he has worked hard to not disappoint, planting roots in Minnesota and going nationwide looking for talent. Minnesota has landed at least one verbal from prep prospects in 11 states outside of Minnesota, spanning from California to Florida. Brewster and his staff have shown a work-hard attitude recruiting the nation as they try to right the Gopher ship.
While strides were made to assemble a good class, Minnesota did miss out on some of the top in-state prep prospects, and this will be an area that needs to improve moving forward. The Gophers did land five in-state verbal commitments in their current class of 21. A possible addition is Under Armour All-American Keanon Cooper (Dallas/Skyline), an athletic defender who could help a poor Gopher defense.
With a strong stable of young quarterbacks, MarQueis Gray should have time to adapt to the college game.
Top Prospect: For the second straight year it looks like Minnesota's No. 1 prospect will be a quarterback. Last year it was Brewster's son Clint, the No. 8 rated quarterback, and this year it is MarQueis Gray (Indianapolis/Ben Davis), the No. 13 rated signal caller. With freshman Adam Weber taking snaps in 2007, Minnesota must be applying the thought that competition is good and you have never have enough talented quarterbacks.
Gray will make for interesting quarterback battles as he has good tools and size. He is a good athlete but is a pocket passer first. He has solid arm strength and flashes good touch. He is also athletic enough to tuck and run and create when plays break down. He still needs to develop his game and improve his mechanics but has good upside. With Weber and Brewster on campus, Minnesota can likely bring Gray along.
Class Highlights: This will be a big class currently with the 21 prep commits and seven JUCO additions in addition to Notre Dame transfer offensive guard Matt Carufel. Four junior college prospects already signed may be able to help right away, especially on defense.
On the prep front, Jewhan Edwards (Philadelphia/Roman Catholic) heads a pair of defensive tackle pledges ready to help a run defense that ranked 114th. Edwards, a big and explosive interior defender, could be a steal if he can take care of the little things on and off the field. The defense also has a verbal from No. 22-ranked inside linebacker Sam Maresh (Champion Park, Minn.), an in-state product. Maresh physically looks ready to play and could also help a porous run defense.
Two outside linebackers -- Spencer Reeves (Dallas/Skyline), a high school teammate of Gopher target Keanon Cooper and Florida native Gary Tinsley (Jacksonville, Fla./First Coast) -- should help. Tinsley could also be used as a rush end and help the Gophers get pressure on the quarterback after ranking 116th nationally in sacks. Minnesota's defensive woes also spread to coverage as they ranked 115th in pass defense and 116th in pass efficiency defense. With that in mind, it has have targeted secondary help. Another Dallas Skyline addition is the athletic Troy Stoudermire, who could play wide receiver or corner, but his talents may be better used on defense. Another solid corner pick-up is Jonathan Dandridge (Detroit/Highland Park).
On offense, WR Brandon Green (Chicago/Paul Robeson) is a speedy, reliable target with good athleticism.
Could See the Field in 2008: Any of the JUCO additions (especially those already on campus), WR Green, DT Edwards, LB Maresh and several others as there are holes to fill, especially on defense.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
First steel for TCF Bank Stadium to be installed Monday
A press release from the U of M on the TCF Bank Stadium. We get 'er goin' next week!!
TCF Bank Stadium is about to get a big delivery.
Over the next six months, the future home of the Golden Gophers will receive 8,800 tons of steel in daily shipments for the stadium's frame. The shipments will be put to use starting next week, when the first steel installation occurs at 7:30 a.m. on Monday, Jan. 28 at the stadium site, 23rd Ave. S.E. between 6th Street and University Avenue.
Media are welcome at the event but, due to the hazardous nature of the work being performed, must wear site-appropriate clothing such as long pants and boots. Check in will be at the 23rd Ave. S.E. gate between 7 and 7:15 a.m. Access to the site will end at 8 a.m.
In total, the stadium will receive the steel in 10-15 daily shipments between now and late July. It will be used to shape the upper bowl, suites and press box structures in addition to supporting the scoreboard. Three cranes will hoist the steel beams, which will then be connected to anchor bolts in the pile caps, connected to pipe piles that run down to bedrock.
Minnesota-based LeJeune Company, along with American Structural Metals, is the steel fabricator and Amerect, also based in Minnesota, will erect the steel. More than 85 percent of the construction projects for the stadium have been awarded to Minnesota-based firms.
With 598 days to go before the first kickoff, the future home of Gopher football is on schedule and on budget. Fundraising is currently underway for the $288.5 million structure and so far nearly $75 million has been raised towards the goal of $86 million in donations and sponsorships. When it opens in September of 2009, TCF Bank Stadium will be the first on-campus football stadium for the University of Minnesota in more than two decades.
The Latest Polls: Still Pointing to McCain vs. Hillary
Florida may or may not count for the Dems (the state party moved the primary up without the approval of the DNC), but New York and California are looking like they'll put Hillary and McCain over the top for their respective parties nomination. Do'h!
California
Field Poll
Clinton - 39
Obama - 27
Edwards - 10
Florida
ARG
Clinton - 59
Obama - 21
Edwards - 14
McCain - 29
Romney - 22
Huckabee - 17
Giuliani - 16
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Clinton - 51
Obama - 25
Edwards - 11
McCain - 30
Giuliani - 30
Romney - 9
Huckabee - 8
California
Field Poll
Clinton - 39
Obama - 27
Edwards - 10
Florida
ARG
Clinton - 59
Obama - 21
Edwards - 14
McCain - 29
Romney - 22
Huckabee - 17
Giuliani - 16
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Clinton - 51
Obama - 25
Edwards - 11
McCain - 30
Giuliani - 30
Romney - 9
Huckabee - 8
3-star RB Deleon Eskridge commits to Gophers
3-star RB Deleon Eskridge from California officially committed to the Gopher Football program yesterday. According to rivals.com he had given coach Brewster his commitment over the holiday break, but held off on his official commit until his official campus visit yesterday. In the mean time he received an offer from Nebraska, but stayed with his commitment to Minnesota.The Gophers really needed to sign a RB in this class, and they finally did with Eskridge. He seems like a decent 3-star recruit, but not the game changing back I was hoping for and the Gophers needed. I expect Eskridge to step in right away and get carries behind Duane Bennett.
I guess I shouldn't be too upset about any 3-star recruit!
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Obama maintains lead in South Carolina
1/21, 580 LVs, MoE 4.1, 1/12 numbers in parenthesisObama: 44% (44%)
Clinton: 28% (31%)
Edwards: 15% (16%)
Unsure: 12% (8%)
It looks like Obama is going to win easily in South Carolina. The Hillary campaign has done a great job of managing expectations in the state though. Hillary isn't even campaigning in South Carolina, and has left that entirely to Bill. Hillary has managed to paint an Obama win as inevitable.....and therefore, unfortunately, almost meaningless to the media. Hillary is happy with wins in NH and NV and wants to get to Super Tuesday. I think Obama will win by 5-7 points, but it won't be seen as a huge victory and the attention will quickly shift to super Tuesday.
Amtrak's Empire Builder
Because I am such a geek, and am now geeking out on the model train front, I thought I'd post this sweet picture that only I will enjoy. It's Amtrak's Empire Builder heading out of St. Paul, MN. Gorgeous eh!?
Obama campaign cites Nevada vote irregularities
I already suspected this, but it's nice to see to Obama campaign bringing it up.
US Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign on Sunday said that it had received reports of voting irregularities in Nevada's nominating caucuses, which were won by rival Hillary Clinton.
US Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign on Sunday said that it had received reports of voting irregularities in Nevada's nominating caucuses, which were won by rival Hillary Clinton.
Spokesmen for Obama's campaign told reporters that a Clinton party handout urged registration lines for the caucuses Saturday to close at 11:30 am, whereas state party rules said anyone in line until 12:00 pm was to be allowed to participate.
"Despite clear rules and timelines laid out by the Nevada Democratic Party that caucus doors should remain open and voter registration should continue until noon, the Clinton campaign encouraged their operatives to close the caucus doors at 11:30 am, a half hour before that deadline," said spokesman Bill Burton.
"This caused confusion and led to people leaving the caucuses before having the chance to participate."
Clinton won the state's nominating contest with 51 percent of the vote, while Obama received 45 percent. The victory increased the former first lady's lead over Obama, after she also won the New Hampshire primary on January 8.
Obama won the Democrats' first nominating caucuses in Iowa at the beginning of the month. His campaign called for a full review of the Nevada vote but insisted it was not calling into question the results.
"We found an unusually high number of reports that the Clinton campaign was insisting that 11:30 was the deadline," said general counsel Bob Bauer, adding that at least 300 complaints had come in.
"We are not calling the results into question at all. We want to make sure this doesn't happen again," Bauer said.
"We are going to notify the Nevada Democratic party that we want a full review of this, and make sure we have in front of us a full picture to make sure this behavior is highlighted and discouraged in the future."
Asked by reporters why an early close would have particularly affected Obama supporters, Bauer said "a campaign that departs from the rules and disenfranchises voters has to be held accountable for that."
He added: "We care about all the voters who would have been affected by this rule."
According to the Nevada Democratic Party rules: "Caucus registration will remain open until viability is determined by 12:00 pm."
Burton sent reporters an email containing what he described as the contents of the Clinton campaign precinct captain handbook, which said 11:30 am was the "deadline for registering (or standing in line to register) to participate in the caucus."
It also said 11:30 am was the time when the "caucus chair closes doors and announces attendance."
Monday, January 21, 2008
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
