UIC Workers Prepare for Strike

By Joe Iosbaker

Chicago, IL - The contract fight between 1500 clerical and administrative workers at University of Illinois - Chicago (UIC) has seen hundreds of workers on picket lines in recent weeks. Members of Local 73 SEIU (Service Employees International Union) voted overwhelmingly (94%) in January to authorize a strike if negotiations fail to reach an agreement. Since then, the campus has not stopped hearing the sounds of marching feet.

While legally required to attempt to resolve differences through federal mediation, the union has kept fighting back against attacks on members by departments and by human resources. On Feb. 7, 75 people took over the street in front of the offices of the Department of Pediatrics. The marchers included Local 73 members, but also members of the Illinois Nurses Association, Graduate Employees Organization, the Laborers Union and Students for a Democratic Society.

At least eight union members had received elimination notices by the new department head the previous Friday. Sirlena Perry, executive board member of Local 73, said "Who's going to do their work? I'll bet it's Academic Professionals, since there's still ten of those in the department."

The message to management was clear: Workers are ready to fight on the picket line if things can't be settled through negotiations. "This shows why we have to have language protecting our job security," said Perry. The bargaining committee has been pressing this issue for one and a half years.

Department Heads Gone Wild?

Two weeks later, 50 workers, students and supporters rallied to support a long time employee being unfairly targeted by another new department head. Donna Dorney has been the administrative assistant in the Criminal Justice department for 15 years and has won praise and awards by UIC. However, the new department head decided she wanted a non-union academic professional, and has been making Dorney's life hell ever since, going as far as suspending her without pay for something that was the head's fault.

Gwen Pinager, a union member and old friend of Dorney's, walked a mile and a half across campus to join the picket line. "I had to stand up for her," she said.

These and many other examples show that it is more than just anti-union attitudes by new department heads. In each case, campus human resources is aware of these actions, knows that the department heads are violating civil service regulations, UIC Policy and Rules and Local 73's contract, but still gives them a green light.

This treatment by these department heads is the same treatment management at UIC has given to members of Local 73 at the bargaining table - disrespect in the form of crummy wage offers and refusal to raise the top steps for our most senior employees, while pleas for job security go unheard. The next meeting with the federal mediator is set for March 6, but union members know they have to rely on themselves to get justice, in contract negotiations and in all other conflicts with management.

Clinton is on the Ropes and Being Pounded

Another clip from The Young Turks attacking Hillary Clinton. Ahhh, she's really becoming an easy target.

Clinton's Feeler About Going After Obama's Pledged Delegates

Updated Primary Results Map by County

These now include everything through February 19th.

Secret Service Abrubtly Stops Screening at Obama Rally in Dallas

Does this seem as alarming to anyone else as it does to me. Especially since it's happening in Dallas!!

Police concerned about order to stop screening
By JACK DOUGLAS Jr.
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Barack Obama speaks Wednesday at a Democratic rally in Dallas' Reunion Arena. Police were told to stop screening people for weapons before the rally began.

DALLAS -- Security details at Barack Obama's rally Wednesday stopped screening people for weapons at the front gates more than an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage at Reunion Arena.

The order to put down the metal detectors and stop checking purses and laptop bags came as a surprise to several Dallas police officers who said they believed it was a lapse in security.

Dallas Deputy Police Chief T.W. Lawrence, head of the Police Department's homeland security and special operations divisions, said the order -- apparently made by the U.S. Secret Service -- was meant to speed up the long lines outside and fill the arena's vacant seats before Obama came on.

"Sure," said Lawrence, when asked if he was concerned by the great number of people who had gotten into the building without being checked. But, he added, the turnout of more than 17,000 people seemed to be a "friendly crowd."

The Secret Service did not return a call from the Star-Telegram seeking comment.

Doors opened to the public at 10 a.m., and for the first hour security officers scanned each person who came in and checked their belongings in a process that kept movement of the long lines at a crawl. Then, about 11 a.m., an order came down to allow the people in without being checked.

Several Dallas police officers said it worried them that the arena was packed with people who got in without even a cursory inspection.

They spoke on condition of anonymity because, they said, the order was made by federal officials who were in charge of security at the event.

"How can you not be concerned in this day and age," said one policeman.

New Polls in Texas and Ohio show Clinton still leading, but the gap is closing

Ohio
ABC News
Clinton- 50%, Obama- 43%

Pennsylvania
Franklin+Marshall Coll.
Clinton- 44%, Obama- 32%

Texas
ABC News
Clinton- 48%, Obama- 47%

Constituent Dynamics
Clinton- 46%, Obama- 45%

IVR Polls
Clinton- 50%, Obama- 45%

Rasmussen
Clinton- 47%, Obama- 44%

Obama Victory Speech after Landslide Victories in WI & HI

Obama wins 9th and 10th States in a Row......is it over for Hillary?

I'm republishing todays entire entry form electoral-vote.com. This is the best synopsis on the state of the race that I've read, and thought it worthy of passing along.....(its much better than anything I could write)

Barack Obama made it 10 in a row by winning the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucus. He is ahead in momentum and delegates, but as Yogi Berra once famously pointed out, it ain't over til it's over. If Hillary Clinton can pull off big victories in Ohio and Texas on March 4 (and maybe little victories in Vermont and Rhode Island), she can blunt his momentum and get back even. If Obama wins Ohio and Texas, Clinton is basically finished. Thus in contrast to what everyone expected at the start of the campaign, superduper Tuesday on Feb. 5 didn't determine the winner. It will be later events.

Here are the results from yesterday's elections.
State Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Hawaii 24% 76%
Wisconsin 41% 58% 55% 37% 5%
Washington 49% 22% 7%

Obama's win in Hawaii, where 20 pledged and 9 unpledged delegates were at stake, was expected since he is a native son. Besides, Hawaii is a caucus state and winning caucuses requires superior on-the-ground organization, something Obama's enthusiastic young supporters have provided in spades.

Wisconsin is a different story. It is ajacent to the state Obama represents in the Senate, Illinois, but Clinton was born in Illinois, so that might have been worth something. Apparently not enough though.

Now let's look at the Wisconsin exit polls as reported by the NY Times. Obama won the men by 61% to 35% but he also (narrowly) won the women, 51% to 49%. He won the people making more than $50,000 a year easily, 59% to 39% but he also won the under $50,000 voters (narrowly), again 51% to 49%. Women and downscale voters have been the core of Clinton's candidacy up until now. If Obama can win huge victories among men and upscale voters and break even with women and downscale voters, Clinton is in deep trouble.

Education is probably the clearest separator between the two of them. Among high school graduates, Clinton won by 8%. Among people with some college, Obama won by 14%. With voters holding a college degree he won by 18%. Finally, among people holding a postgraduate degree by a huge 32%. The picture is clear here: the more education you have, the more likely you are to support Obama. In Wisconsin, 73% of the Democratic voters had at least some college. It is interesting to see how Obama is viewed. Fundamentally, he is not seen as the black candidate (except by blacks, who are a tiny fraction of the Wisconsin population). Instead he is seen as the educated candidate, a guy with degrees with Columbia and the Harvard Law School (which apparently trumps a degree from Wellesley College, which is what Hillary Clinton has).

Another surprising item is the partisan breakdown of the vote. Among Democrats, Obama squeak by Clinton 50% to 49%. But among independents and Republicans he won near 2 to 1. Religion was not a huge factor, with Obama winning both the churched and the unchurched. Among Protestants Obama won by 14%; among Catholics Clinton edged him out by 1%. No Jews were reported voting (probably both of Wisconsin's U.S. senators, Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold--both Democrats and both Jewish--were out of town).

Finally age played out as it has in the past. the 72% of the voters under 65 preferred Obama 61% to 37% while those 65 and older went for Clinton 60% to 39%. No specific breakdown by age and gender was reported, but based on past data, Clinton's lead among seniors may be due to a prodominance of older women.

All in all, Obama is making great inroads into Clinton's base. He is winning his base of educated, upscale, and young voters by huge margins and fighting her to a draw among her core supporters of less well educated, downscale, and older voters. Even more frightening for her must be the thought that both Texas and Ohio have open primaries. With the Republican race all over but the shoutin', most of the independents in Texas and Ohio are going to vote in the Democratic primaries there and they have been breaking 2 to 1 for Obama over Clinton. If the election comes down to Obama vs. McCain, the independents are going to be in hog heaven--two candidates they really like. If it is Clinton vs. McCain, they are going to break strongly for McCain, except maybe older women. And even that is less sure, since a 72-year-old candidate may exert a lot of pull on the geriatic vote.

While it will take several days for the polls to reflect yesterday's results, the trading markets respong much faster. At www.intrade.com as of this morning stock in Obama was trading at $79 and stock in Clinton was trading at $19. This means you can buy 10 shares of Obama for $79. If he gets the nomination, you get $100. If he loses the nomination, you get zero. If you think Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination, this is a good time to buy stock in her. For every $19 you invest, you get $100 if she is nominated. Here are the charts for the past 90 days.
Clinton Obama

In the general election market, 10 shares of Obama to win the Presidency cost $56, 10 shares of Clinton cost $12 and 10 shares of McCain cost $35. The political futures market thus thinks it likely that Barack Obama will not only win the Democratic nomination, but will also win the general election and gives Hillary Clinton hardly any chance to become President. McCain may think so, too, at least about the nomination part. In his speech yesterday, he began attacking Obama already. Nary a word about Clinton.

Now on the the much less exciting Republican side. Mike Huckabee keeps plugging away, but it is not entirely clear why. John McCain basically has the nomination locked up. However, he got only 55% of the vote in Wisconsin, which means that he still has his work cut out for him convincing conservatives that he is their man, despite endorsements by two President Bushes (two Presidents Bush? like two attorneys general?). McCain beat Huckabee in most demographic categories, including men, women, upscale, downscale, college educated, HS grad, Protestant, and Catholic. However, Huckabee won by 20% among evangelicals and by 23% among the voters for whom "shares my values" is top priority.

Here is a new Ohio poll, taken before the Wisconsin results were known.
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Ohio SurveyUSA Feb. 18 52% 43% 61% 29% 5%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources. They differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, some sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Delegates

Source Clinton Obama Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
NY Times1081 1078 12 808 139 198 5
AP 1245 1319 26 942 253 245 14
CNN 1239 1301 26 918 286 217 16
ABC 1261 1355 35 895 274 242 14
CBS 1252 1349 26 856 166 199 10
MSNBC 1262 1323 822 282 243 104

Billy Bragg "Mr. Love & Justice" Website

A website for Billy Bragg's new album, "Mr. Love and Justice," is now up. The site includes track-lists, videos, and many more little extras and info. Here's a couple of the videos that are currently up in the site

Dallas D.A.'s Office Finds JFK Memorabilia

from MaryFerrell.org:

A safe in the Dallas County district attorney's office was opened and found to contain a cache of JFK-related materials, according to a story in the Dallas Morning News. Items include personal letters to Dallas D.A. Henry Wade (pictured at left), records from the Jack Ruby trial, and clothing possibly belonging to Ruby and Oswald. Attracting the most attention is a two-page transcript marked with a sticker "Plaintiff's Exhibit 27" which purports to be a conversation between Oswald and Ruby on Oct 4, plotting JFK's murder. The dialog, which reads like a grade B movie script ("Lee: You said the boys in Chicago want to get rid of the Attorney General.....I can still do it, all I need is my rifle and a tall building; but it will take time, maybe six months to find the right place; but I'll have to have some money to live on while I do the planning.") may be just that. Wade did work with producers on a movie entitled Countdown in Dallas, and letters discussing the film were discovered in the safe. The transcript is similar but not identical to CE 2821, an FBI report of an alleged Oct 4 meeting of Oswald and Ruby at the Carousel Club, as related by Carroll Jarnagin.

Ouch! That's Gotta Hurt. (but damn it's funny)

Franken leads Coleman in MN Senate Poll

According to the latest poll from Rasmussen, Al Franken has taken a 49% to 46% lead over Norm Coleman. Norm Coleman appears to be very vulnerable, and Franken's numbers have been slowly increasing over the past few months. Winning the MN Senate race would also be very important to the Dems nationally, and would probably help increase their majority in the Senate.....which would be a great help to ?President Obama?

Unofficial Tallies in City Understated Obama Vote

An article in last weeks New York Times points to some serious shenanigans in the New York Democratic primary.

Latest Polls

These newest numbers look very good for Barack Obama. It looks as if he'll win Wisconsin tonight, although not by huge numbers. But what's really good news are the numbers in Texas. He's closed a 20 pt gap down into the margin of error. If Obama can pull Texas out of the bag, that will be the end for Hillary, even if she wins Ohio and Pennsylvania.

TEXAS
Opinion Research
Clinton 50%
Obama 48%

SurveyUSA
Clinton 50%
Obama 45%

WISCONSIN
Obama 52%
Clinton 42%

Polls in Texas All Over the Map

TEXAS
Feb 15 ARG
Obama 48%, Clinton 42%

Feb 15 Rasmussen
Clinton 54%, Obama 38%

Feb 14 IVR
Clinton 49%, Obama 41%

This probably means that Clinton is ahead, but not by that much. I tend to believe that the ARG and Rasmussen polls are outliers and Clinton is probably up by 8-10 pts. right now. I have no evidence of this, just going with my gut

Civil Rights Icon John Lewis Switches Super-Delegate Vote From Hillary To Obama

By Eric Kleefeld - February 14, 2008, 10:26PM

This is big news, and may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy. The New York Times reports that Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a legend of the civil rights movement who had endorsed Hillary last year, is switching his super-delegate vote from her over to Barack Obama.

Lewis stopped short of formally switching his endorsement over to Obama, but said he would make a decision on that matter within a few days. Lewis also said that he and other lawmakers would meet soon to decide just how they should involve themselves in the nomination fight — and he cited the super-delegate battle as a pitfall that could weaken the party's hopes this Fall.

In short, it looks like the Hillary campaign probably can't count on the super-delegates to save them, should they lose out in the elected delegate race. So if it becomes clear that Obama ends up with an insurmountable lead — or Hillary, for that matter — there could be a strong message from super-delegates that the loser has to concede defeat and close up shop.

Wow!

Obama ad running in Wisconsin

Earlier this week, the Clinton campaign started running an attack ad in Wisconsin. Today the Obama campaign released this ad in response. I think this signals a new phase in the campaign. It's going to get ugly before this is cleared up.

Happy Valentine's Day

Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert Welcome Back the Writers!!

dgw

Latest Polls don't Look Good for Obama (Hillary might still win this)

WISCONSIN
Rasmussen
Obama 47%
Clinton 43%

Strategic Vision
Obama 45%
Clinton 41%

OHIO
Rasmussen
Clinton 51%
Obama 37%

Quinnipiac
Clinton 55%
Obama 34%

PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton 52%
Obama 36%

Panic at Fox News

Democratic Primary Results by State (and margin of victory)

Why Obama is Winning in So Many States

This is an excerpt from yesterday's Young Turks. I'm starting to come to this conclusion myself. Obama seems to have a much better on the ground organization than Clinton. His massive grassroots support combined with his choice to spend money on local field offices and 50 state strategy are REALLY paying off.

Updated Vote by County Maps

Some Analysis from The Votemaster

Analysis taken from the great election site electoral-vote.com

In a development that should make Republicans nervous, Obama got more votes (619,000) in Virginia than all the Republican candidates combined (485,000). In fact, the combined Democratic vote in Virginia was more than double the combined Republican vote. And this in a state that hasn't voted Democratic in a Presidential election since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson wiped Barry Goldwater off the map. If the Democratic enthusiasm is running so high in places like Virginia, what's going to happen in the general election in true swing states like Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado? In Maryland, the Democrats got over 2.5x more votes than the Republicans, but Maryland is traditionally a blue state, so that was to be expected.

The Virginia exit polls, as reported by the NY Times, are enlightening. Obama swept every demographic category except white women, which Clinton won 54% to 45%. Black women went for Obama by the amazing margin of 85% to 15%. Thus black women clearly identify by race stronger than by gender. In contrast, white men went for Obama 56% to 42%. In what should be a huge red flag for Clinton, voters making less than $50,000 a year, the core of her base, voted for Obama 60% to 38% and seniors (60+) went for Obama 54% to 46%. Obama also swept up the voters without college degrees 61% to 39%. None of this is good news for Clinton. Her base has been the downscale, older, high school graduates, which is not a bad base to have since there are a lot of voters in these categories, but they seem to be moving away from her. She did slightly better in Maryland, where she nosed out Obama among the seniors 48% to 47% but still lost among voters making less than $50,000 a year and voters without college degrees.

Now on to the Republican side. John McCain won all three primaries, increasing his delegate total and making him unstoppable at this point. But as the votes show, there is still a lot of resistance to him. In Virginia he got just 50% of the vote, for example. He may have more delegates than Huckabee, but he hasn't closed the deal entirely yet. McCain's victory was not as broad as Obama's. In Virginia he lost among younger voters (17-29), those without college degrees, conservatives, and Protestants. While Huckabee can make life slightly uncomfortable for McCain for a few more weeks, he has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Apparently Huckabee's strategy at this point is to do sufficiently well that McCain feels forced to choose him as Veep to mollify the extreme conservatives in the party.

Obama hasn't even gotten the nomination and already he has coattails. In congressional district MD-04 in suburban Montgomery and Prince George's Counties surrounding D.C., there was a fierce battle in the Democratic primary for a seat in the House of Representatives. In that district, a progressive young black community organizer, Donna Edwards, challenged and beat a popular eight-term incumbent Democrat, Albert Wynn. Edwards ran against him in 2006 and lost. The difference this time was all the enthusiastic young Obama supporters who showed up to vote. Since MD-04 has a PVI of D+30, she can go visit Nancy Pelosi today to start discussing office space and committee assignments. The Washington Post has a story about her upset win. In MD-01, Wayne Gilchrest (R), may also lose a primary.

Wake up Call for Obama Supporters: Clinton with wide lead in Ohio

After Obama big wins last night, we should all take a second and think about weather this nomination is over yet. Hillary has a huge lead in Ohio according to this SurveyUSA poll (which had been the most accurate in the primaries so far), and she is, in all likelyhood, going to win the Texas primary.

NORTH CAROLINA
SurveyUSA
Obama 50%
Clinton 40%

OHIO
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 39%

WISCONSIN
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%

RHODE ISLAND
Brown U.
Obama 36%
Clinton 28%

UPDATED: Dem & Rep Primary Vote by County

This is what the race looks like up to today (before Potomac Tuesday). All states are in except the contentious Washington caucuses on the Republican side.

The Democratic Primary Race after Today

After Obama sweeps today, it looks really good for him in all but 3 states in my opinion. I predict he will win every state except Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Vermont and Rhode Island. Unfortunately for him, those include the 3 most populous states remaining. If this happens it will come down to the super delegates and Howard Dean to decide the nominee. Now, If Obama can pull out a win in Ohio things look better for him but I think we'd still be looking at a convention fight over Michigan and Florida delegates. If someone wants to win this thing outright before the convention (and terrible infighting) Obama probably needs to win almost every state including Ohio and Pennsylvania. If he loses 1 or both of those then the Democratic Party has a major problem. How they deal with that is anyones guess.......but that's a topic I don't want to get into right now.



February 19th: Hawaii, Wisconsin
March 4th: Texas, Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island
March 8th: Wyoming
March 11th: Mississippi
April 22nd: Pennsylvania
May 6th: Indiana, North Carolina
May 13th: West Virginia
May 20th: Kentucky, Oregon
June 3rd: Montana, South Dakota

Potomac Primary Delegate Baseline

from MyDD....

Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.

Virginia (83 delegates)

Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6

Maryland (70 delegates)

Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6

Washington, DC (15 delegates)

Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1

It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.

The Rebel Girl

The begining of this video, is an audio narrative by Elizabeth Gurley Flynn, with images of her, as well as a quote of hers about women in the I.W.W. This Narative is commonly used on recordings to introduce the song "The Rebel Girl" in which Joe Hill dedicated to Elezabeth Guley Flynn. The second part, is the song "The Rebel Girl" Writen by Joe Hill, and performed by Hazel Dickens.

Emma Goldman: Well known anachist writer and feminist, took part in the IWW free speech fight during the first world war.

Helen Keller: Mostly known for her disability, was an active member of the I.W.W. and influential feminist.

Grace Silver: Mother of once famous actress Queen Silver. Active organizer in the I.W.W. Grace and Queen Silver were influental supporters of evolution, and athiests.

Lucy Parsons: Wife of Albert Parsons a haymarket Martyr, organizer for the I.W.W. and Communist Party.

Judi Bari: Radical enviromentalist, feminist, and member of the I.W.W. and Earth First. Victom of a failed assasination, later died of cancer.

Mother Jones: Helped form the I.W.W. in 1905. One of the most well known organizers, and active socailists of the day. She would most likely be annoyed that liberals have a magazine named after her.

Lesbia Harford: She was a well known poet in Australia, and a member of the Australian contingent of the I.W.W.

Amelia Siblich: Known as "Flaming Milka" due to her wearing red while at only 19 she helped lead a coal strike in Colorado.

Rosie Kane: Former member of the Scotish Parlement, member of the Scotish Socialist Party, and the I.W.W.

Caroline Leckie: (Same as above)

Dorothy Day: Member of the I.W.W. Formed the Anarchist organization "Catholic Workers".

Charlene Sato:(It's misspelled in the video) Member of the I.W.W. supporter of the Hawaiian-based LACASA, and
important in sociolinguistics.

Faith Petric: I.W.W. Member and folk singer.

Anne Feenley: I.W.W. Member and folk singer.

Charolotte Anita Whitney: As far as I know, had never joined the I.W.W. Yet was an active communist. Was arrested in California for making a speech on behalf of an I.W.W. member which violated an anti-syncialism law, established to crush the I.W.W.

Suley Ayala: I.W.W. Member who joined during recent organizing of Starbucks in New York City. She had faced religious persecution several times due to her faith as a Wiccan.

The rest of the photos are of random women in the I.W.W. (Names unkown). The first is at a Rally in 2007 in Seatle WA. The second is a Starbucks worker in New York City. The third is of two women in Scotland U.K. Fourth and Fifth.. Starbucks workers in NYC, and lastly is the logo for the I.W.W. Woman's Caucus.

National Democratic Polling Trends from Pollster.com

Obama Cruising to Victory in Potomac Tuesday....and Wisconsin next week

WISCONSIN
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%

MARYLAND
ARG
Obama 55%
Clinton 38%

SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 32%

VIRGINIA
ARG
Obama 57%, Clinton 40%

SurveyUSA
Obama 60%
Clinton 38%

McCain: The Audacity of Gloom

Obama campaign claims "irregularities" in Louisiana

Per the campaign's blog, under the headline: "After Widespread Reports of Voting Irregularities Obama Campaign Submits Urgent Request for Assistance:"

BATON ROUGE, LA -- The Obama campaign submitted an urgent request for assistance to the Secretary of State’s Division of Elections today, after receiving widespread reports from Democrats across Louisiana who reported that they were not allowed to vote because their party affiliation had been switched. Hundreds of Louisiana democrats went to the polls to vote in today’s presidential primary and found that they were now on registration lists as Independent or Unaffiliated voters.

Obama faced a similar hurdle in California, where some poll workers appear to have misinformed independents seeking to vote in the Democratic primary.

Choosing to go public with complaints, though, is always a political as well as a practical move, and it may increase the sense among some Obama supporters of Clinton dirty tricks -- something the Obama campaign isn't alleging in either case.

This primary, with its huge turnout and surging independent cadre, is really straining a very creaky elections system.

Predictions Results Map

A quick look back at MarxistGophers predictions for Super Tuesday.

The states I picked correctly before super tuesday are colored in the winning candidates colors, and the states where I picked incorrectly are in black. Not surprisingly, I did a little better with the Dems than I did with the Republicans. I guess I just don't understand Republican voters well enough......I'll have to work on that.

More Polls in Upcoming States

The next week is looking good for Obama in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, DC, and Virginia. Then comes some tougher states, but I am surprised to see that Obama is trailing Clinton in Wisconsin by 9%. That could easily change in the next week though.


MARYLAND
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 52%
Clinton 33%

VIRGINIA
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%

Insider Advantage
Obama 52%
Clinton 37%

WISCONSIN
primary Tue. Feb. 19th
ARG
Clinton 50%
Obama 41%

Presidential Primary Results by County

These are the updated results after the Super Tuesday states. New Mexico is still not reporting results for the Democrats, but I'll get that up as soon as they report.

Saturday is the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Nebraska, and the primary in Louisiana.

Convention Delegate Fight Update

This is a post from Open Left that I'm republishing here because its awesome!


by: Chris Bowers
Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 13:17
After yesterday's explosive discussion on delegates and a brokered convention here on Open Left, I've been talking to some party insiders to try and get a better handle on the situation. Here is what I can report:

1. When Matt joked yesterday about preparing for "a party platform fight over mandates as a test of delegate strength," he was actually pretty on target. The fight over delegates will occur on three main committees: the platform committee, the credentials committee, and the rules committee. The fact is that right now there is not system in place to select delegates from Michigan and Florida, but the fight will encompass those three committees.

2. The rules committee is dominated by Clinton supporters, even though it was the rules committee that stripped the Michigan and Florida primaries as the means to select delegates from those two states. Be prepared for a change of direction from the rules committee. As James Boyce wrote yesterday: "[n]ote to Obama supporters, you better have enough delegates to win with those [Michigan and Florida] counting for Hillary, trust me on this. In fact, lawyer up now." Indeed, trust him on this one.

3. If Obama is going to turn back the rules committee, the credentials committee is the place where he needs to make his stand. That committee is, I believe, composed of three members from each state and all of the territories holding nomination contests (D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam, Democrats Abroad, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands). An additional twenty-five members are chosen by the presumptive nominee or, in the absence of a presumptive nominee, by Howard Dean himself. As such, this committee should be significantly less friendly to the Michigan and Florida demands from the Clinton campaign. I believe that the winner of each contest chooses the three members from each state and territory on the committee, but it isn't clear to me what "winner" means. For example, who won Nevada: Clinton who had the most state delegates, or Obama, who is projected to have the most national delegates? Even if that will be determined at a later date, then who won New Hampshire? Clinton won a plurality of the popular vote, the two campaigns were tied in pledged delegates, and Obama leads in the overall delegation from New Hampshire when super delegates are included. Still, since it seems Obama has a strong edge in smaller states and contests today, this committee should be favorable to him.

4. The Clinton campaign is trying to use super delegates as a firewall, so any hope of a deal on that front should also be scrapped (just as any hope for an early deal on Michigan and Florida should also be scrapped). From my perspective, it is of utmost importance that the Democratic nominee be the candidate who won the most votes and popular caucus support during the January 3rd to June 3rd nominating contests. I also think it is foolish to assume that super delegates will simply line up behind Obama if he narrowly wins the most pledged delegates (even with Michigan and Florida included), as long as Clinton can still win the nomination with the support of super delegates. As such, I think it is up to us to start a pressure campaign on super delegates to support whoever wins the most pledged delegates and popular support. This means to stop counting super delegates in delegate totals immediately, to emphasize the greater democratic value of pledged delegates, and to emphasize the notion that no Democratic nominee is the legitimate choice of the party's rank and file unless s/he wins the most pledged delegates (popular votes would be even better, of course, but some states are not counting the popular vote). We need to let the party's leaders know that anything else is unacceptable.

This is a murky process, and I will have more later today. I'm surprised at the interest my post generated yesterday, but let me just say that I'm not the only Democrat who sees a teetering mound of flaming wreckage appearing on the horizon. The Clinton campaign is not going to budge on either super delegates or their preferred mechanism for the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates, and they have a lot of insider support to get their way on both. It is up to us to make sure that the party has a legitimate nominee, and the will of the party's primary voters and caucus participants is not thwarted. Howard Dean needs to show some leadership on this one, too.

Update: The composition of the platform, rules, and credentials committees can be seen here. Also, commenter joejoejoe has more.

Yes We Can!

The Yes We Can Song
by will.i.am

I was sitting in my recording studio watching the debates...
Torn between the candidates

I was never really big on politics...
and actually I’m still not big on politics...
but 4 years ago, me and the black eyed peas supported Kerry...
And we supported Kerry with all our might...
We performed and performed and performed for the DNC...
doing all we could do to get the youth involved...

The outcome of the last 2 elections has saddened me...
on how unfair, backwards, upside down, unbalanced, untruthful,
corrupt, and just simply, how wrong the world and "politics" are...

So this year i wanted to get involved and do all i could early...

And i found myself torn...
because this time it’s not that simple...
our choices aren’t as clear as the last elections ...
last time it was so obvious...
Bush and war
vs
no Bush and no war...

But this time it’s not that simple...
and there are a lot of people that are torn just like i am...

So for awhile I put it off and i was going to wait until it was decided for me...

And then came New Hampshire...

And i was captivated...

Inspired...

I reflected on my life...
and the blessings I have...
and the people who fought for me to have these rights and blessings...

and I’m not talking about a "black thing"
I’m talking about a "human thing" me as a "person"
an American...

That speech made me think of Martin Luther King...
Kennedy...
and Lincoln...
and all the others that have fought for what we have today...

what America is "supposed" to be...

freedom...
equality...
and truth...

and thats not what we have today...
we think we are free...
but in reality terror and fear controls our decisions...

this is not the America that our pioneers and leaders fought and
died for...

and then there was New Hampshire

it was that speech...
like many great speeches...
that one moved me...
because words and ideas are powerful...

It made me think...
and realize that today we have "very few" leaders...
maybe none...

but that speech...

it inspired me...
it inspired me to look inside myself and outwards towards the world...
it inspired me to want to change myself to better the world...
and take a "leap" towards change...
and hope that others become inspired to do the same...
change themselves..
change their greed...
change their fears...
and if we "change that"
"then hey"..
we got something right...???...

1 week later after the speech settled in me...
I began making this song...
I came up with the idea to turn his speech into a song...
because that speech effected and touched my inner core like nothing in a very long time...

it spoke to me...

because words and ideas are powerful...

I just wanted to add a melody to those words...
I wanted the inspiration that was bubbling inside me to take over...

so i let it..

I wasn't afraid to stand for something...
to stand for "change"...
I wasn't afraid of "fear"...
it was pure inspiration...

so I called my friends...
and they called their friends...
in a matter of 2 days...
We made the song and video...

Usually this process would take months...
a bunch of record company people figuring out strategies and release dates...
interviews...
all that stuff...
but this time i took it in my own hands...
so i called my friends sarah pantera, mike jurkovac, fred goldring, and jesse dylan to help make it happen...
and they called their friends..
and we did it together in 48 hours...
and instead of putting it in the hands of profit we put it in the hands of inspiration...

then we put it on the net for the world to feel...

When you are truly inspired..
magic happens...
incredible things happen...
love happens..
(and with that combination)

"love, and inspiration"

change happens...

"change for the better"
Inspiration breeds change...

"Positive change"...

no one on this planet is truly experienced to handle the obstacles we face today...
Terror, fear, lies, agendas, politics, money, all the above...
It’s all scary...

Martin Luther King didn't have experience to lead...
Kennedy didn't have experience to lead...
Susan B. Anthony...
Nelson Mandella...
Rosa Parks...
Gandhi...
Anne Frank...
and everyone else who has had a hand in molding the freedoms we have and take for granted today...

no one truly has experience to deal with the world today...

they just need "desire, strength, courage ability, and passion" to change...
and to stand for something even when people say it's not possible...

America would not be here "today" if we didn’t stand and fight for
change "yesterday"...
Everything we have as a "people" is because of the "people" who fought for
change...
and whoever is the President has to realize we have a lot of changing to do

I'm not trying to convince people to see things how i do...
I produced this song to share my new found inspiration and how I've been moved...
I hope this song will make you feel...
love...
and think...
and be inspired just like the speech inspired me...

that’s all...

Let's all come together like America is supposed to...
Like Japan did after Hiroshima...

that was less than 65 years ago...
and look at Japan now...

they did it together...
they did it...

"We can't?...

Are you serious..?..

WE CAN!!!

Yes we can...
A United "America"
Democrats, Republicans and Independents together...
Building a new America

We can do it...
"TOGETHER"

Please visit www.yeswecansong.com

Thank you for reading and listening...
will.i.am

Looking Ahead to States after Super Tuesday

I think tonight will end in a virtual tie, sending the nomination into March. The rest of the primary season is state by state, which I think is an advantage to Obama. Coming up THIS SATURDAY is Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana. While there are no polls out yet in Lousiana or Nebraska, a SurveyUSA poll of Washington showed Obama with a 13 point lead, 53% TO 40% over Clinton. After that Maine has a caucus on Sunday the 10th, and then on Tuesday the 12th we have Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. By next Tuesday, we might have a clearer picture of who the nominee will be.

Republican Super Tuesday Predictions

In the interest of fairness I thought I'd make my predictions for the Republican Super Tuesday states as well. No one can ever accuse me of being partisan!

Final Super Tuesday Predictions from MarxistGopher

It looks like a split to me. Whoever wins the close states, it will be close...CLOSE. The delegate divide will be less than 100 and the race will continue on into March....which I think favors Obama. Given the polls released this morning my predictions may be a little conservative for Obama, but I'm a pessimist by nature.....

Looking Like A Good Day for Obama!

This is part of an article for Reuters. If this poll is anywhere near correct it suggests a huge Obama swing across the country that could make tonight decisive for an Obama victory! On the other hand, Zogby polls tend to favor Obama, and other polls suggest a much closer race or even a substantial Hillary lead in California......so who knows.

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama surged to a big lead over Hillary Clinton in California hours before "Super Tuesday" voting began in 24 states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

In the Republican race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held a 7-point advantage on Arizona Sen. John McCain in California, while McCain added to commanding double-digit leads in New York and New Jersey.

On a sprawling day of coast-to-coast voting, the biggest ever in a U.S. primary race, the U.S. presidential contenders in both parties were fighting to win a huge cache of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.

Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, are in a hard-fought battle for the Democratic presidential nomination and split the first four significant contests.

"There is clear Obama momentum in California," pollster John Zogby said. "But in New Jersey, things seemed to swing in favor of Clinton, and Missouri was very mixed."

-------------------------------------


US Democratic Party voters in Indonesia, where Barack Obama spent part of his childhood, handed him a win over Hillary Clinton in the first voting abroad on "Super Tuesday," party officials said.

Seventy-five percent of nearly 100 votes cast by expatriate Americans just past midnight (1700 GMT Monday) went to Obama and 25 percent went to Clinton, Democrats Abroad officials here said.

Obama Surging in all States in Latest Polls

Massachusetts
Suffolk Univ.
Obama 46%
Clinton 44%

Connecticut
SurveyUSA
Obama 48%
Clinton 46%

New Jersey
SurveyUSA
Clinton 52%
Obama 41%

Zogby
Clinton 43%
Obama 43%

New York
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 38%

Illinois
SurveyUSA
Obama 66%
Clinton 30%

California
Zogby
Obama 46%
Clinton 40%

Missouri
Zogby
Obama 47%
Clinton 42%

Georgia
Zogby
Obama 48%
Clinton 31%

Gerald Patrick Hemming Dies at 71

Feb 1, 2008: Gerald Patrick Hemming, founder of InterPen and a continual subject of interest among JFK assassination researchers, died on Jan 29 at the age of 71. For more information on Hemming, see his Spartacus Educational page, a biographical form at Gordon Winslow's cuban-exile.com, FBI files on Hemming made available to the HSCA, and Hemming's HSCA testimony at History Matters. The HSCA's Segregated Collection of CIA files contains voluminous material on Hemming. In this Youtube video interview, Hemming repeats his claim that he was repeatedly offered money to assassinate President Kennedy.

Gerald Patrick Hemming, Jr., a swashbuckling six-foot five ex-Marine turned soldier-of-fortune, who personally knew many of the prominent personages of the tumultuous sixties, and whose name appears with regularity in the books and articles on the Kennedy assassination, died Monday at his home in Fayetteville, North Carolina after a lengthy illness. Born in Los Angeles on March 1, 1937, Hemming was 71.

After he left the Marine Corp in the fall of 1958, Hemming travelled to Cuba and assist the newly formed Castro government in military training. In Cuba, Hemming worked as an instructor in a Cuban parachute regiment and was later named adjutant of the San Julien air base. Hemming claims while at San Julien he thwarted an assassination attempt by a disgruntled Cuban soldier who intended to shoot against Fidel Castro while he toured the air base with Soviet envoy Anderi Mikoyan.

In Cuba, Hemming met and worked with another American named William Morgan who in April 1961 was brutally executed by Castro forces for being a traitor. Hemming stated that he met Jack Ruby at Morgan's residence. Morgan's US citizenship was restored in 2007. In Cuba he also met Frank Fiorini, also known as Frank Sturgis who gained notoriety in 1974 as one of the Watergate burglars.

Hemming met and liked Che Guevera who he described as a man of his word. Hemming claimed he had a secret meeting with Guevera during the height of the Cuban missile crisis.

Hemming fled Cuba in the fall of 1960 and was extensively debriefed by the CIA regarding Castro's military operations. He then started a paramilitary organization named Intercontinental Penetration Force or Interpen, which trained first in the Everglades and later on No Name Key, a small, mosquito-infested island thirty miles north of Key West. The group was sometimes known as "Patrick's raiders".

Hemming's group was heavily funded by right-wing Caribbean dictators but some believe there was secret funding from the CIA. Hemming claimed to be reporting to James Jesus Angleton, the controversial chief of the CIA's Counterintelligence arm. Hemming also had familial ties to the intelligence community: his uncle had been a business partner with John McCone, JFK's Director of the CIA.

In December 1962, Hemming and a dozen of his Interpen group were arrested in the Florida Keys shortly before leaving on a secret mission to Cuba. Jailed overnight in Key West, the group was bailed out by a Miami attorney who flew them to Miami on a chartered seaplane. Hemming stated that when they arrived in Miami, Oswald attempted to infiltrate their group but Hemming instructed his men to remove Oswald. Several months later when Hemming and his lawyer participated in a Miami radio talk show, a man identifying himself as Lee Oswald called the show. A week after the assassination, the talk show host reported the incident to the FBI. In 1978, Hemming testified to the House Select Committee on Assassinations that he had met Lee Harvey Oswald outside the Cuban Consulate in January 1959, was suspicious of Oswald's motives and the information he was seeking. Subsequently, Hemming advised his Cuban friends to get rid of Oswald.

On bail restriction arising from the arrest in the Florida Keys, Hemming was unable to return to Los Angeles for a Christmas reunion with his family. A short time thereafter, his father, who owned a television repair shop, died. Hemming always regretted missing that last Christmas with his father. He told one writer that for months after his father died he would call his father's business after hours just to listen to his father's voice on the recorded announcement of the business hours.

In March of 1963, Hemming traveled to Dallas, Texas seeking financial support for his Interpen group. One of the person contacted included former Gen. Edwin Walker, who was shot at by Lee Oswald a few weeks later.

Hemming testified to the HSCA that in the summer of 1963 he was personally offered money to arrange the murder of JFK; specifying one such offer was made in the home of New Orleans private investigator Guy Banister and another in the Dallas Petroleum Club.

In the late 1980s Hemming and two of his Interpen associates served as consultants to Oliver Stone's movie "JFK". He can be seen briefly in the film as the man co-coordinating the assassination. Although some speculate that members of Interpen may have been involved in the assassination, Hemming always denied that charge, but has suggested that several years later he learned the details of the assassination from persons who were involved. Among his controversial claims was that Kennedy assassination was funded in part by members of the family of Rafeal Trujillo, the Dominican Republic dictator assassinated in April 1961, and that there was a separate shooter in the Texas School Book Depository with a contract to kill Governor John Connally. He also claimed that the conspirators had planted a bomb in a car parked near the triple underpass that could have been used to blow up the entire presidential limousine had the shooters been unable to deliver a fatal head shot.

Hemming may have given us the answer to some of the mysteries of the assassination. For instance, he has identified the Mexico City mystery man as German born Mario Tauler Sague, recruited for the CIA by Bill Harvey while Harvey was the Berlin station chief. Sague was involved in one of the earliest attempts on Castro's life.

At the conference in Dallas, Hemming claimed to know Sylvia Odio's visitors were. He stated that one of them had once saved his life. In 2005, he finally revealed the names. The man who saved his life was Angelo Murgado, the "Angel" in the Odio story, and "Leopoldo" was Bernardo DeTorres, a name familiar to most students of the assassination. The names were first publicly identified in an article written by Mark Howell and Tim Gratz for the Key West Citizen. Murgado was interviewed in person by Prof Joan Mellen (in the presence of Hemming) and she tells the story in her book "A Farewell to Justice". Murgado was also interviewed by David Talbot for his book "Brothers". In "Brothers", Talbot states that Murgado told him that he, Murgado, had shown Robert F Kennedy the newspaper article and photo of Lee Oswald passing out literature in New Orleans, leading to the disturbing conclusion that when RFK learned of the arrest of Oswald for the murder of his brother, he recognized Oswald's name and photo.

Howard K. Davis, who served as an Army ranger in the Korean War and worked with the Castro forces in 1958 before the abdication of Batista, was the second in command of the Interpen group and worked closely with Hemming for many years. Davis, who now works for Homeland Security at the Miami airport, said of Hemming, "Hemming was at heart an idealist who longed for freedom for the Cuban people and like so many was disappointed that Castro betrayed the stated goals of his revolution. Gerry loved the Cuban people, spoke Spanish fluently and he is remembered with great fondness in the Cuban exile community. He named one of his sons after a Cuban exile who paid the ultimate sacrifice in the fight against Castro."

Hemming has been interviewed by various JFK researchers, and was a featured speaker at the JFK Lancer November in Dallas Conference in 1996. Hemming's HSCA testimony given on June 17, 1993, was donated by Noel Twyman to JFK Lancer for distribution. There are many who believe that most of Hemming's stories were nothing but the creation of a clever mind while others are equally confident that he carried some secrets of the assassination to his grave. Perhaps the epitaph that should appear on his grave is the description once given him by an assassination writer: "Valedictorian in a Guerilla Suit.

Commentary on Oswald's Ghost

This is taken from Mary Ferrell.

Robert Stone's film Oswald's Ghost aired on PBS recently, earning rave reviews from some and less-than-favorable response from others. The film grapples with the effect of the JFK assassination on American society, though leaves the strong impression that the resulting tumult was unnecessary, as Oswald killed JFK by himself.

Mainstream sources' positive reviews include the Boston Globe, LA Times, Dallas Morning News, and Miami Herald.

Here are a few longer pieces which take issue with the film from different perspectives:

Kennedy's Ghost, by Rex Bradford.

Oswald's Ghost, by Jim DiEugenio.

What Oswald Wrought: Lament of a Generation, by Max Holland.

Night at the Museum, by David Lifton.

See also this piece by David D'Arcy: Robert Stone and Oswald's Ghost, which includes an interview with the filmmaker where Stone voices more directly some of his thoughts on the assassination.

Gophers in Rivals Top 5 Surprise Recruiting Classes

Every year it seems that the usual suspects are always near the top of the Rivals.com team rankings. With the success on the field, it's no surprise to see teams like Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC and LSU always up there with the best of the best.

But each recruiting year, there's a crop of surprise teams that come out of nowhere and finish with great classes. Rivals.com takes a look at the five biggest surprises in recruiting this season.

RIVALS5: RECRUITING SURPRISES

KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Current Class Rank: No. 35 overall, No. 9 in Big 12

It's hard to call the Jayhawks a surprise in anything anymore as this season's effort on the field proved that. There is no question that the Kansas coaching staff has a great eye for talent. They've taken players that were lightly recruited in some cases or needed a little extra time to develop, and transformed them into all-conference players. But this year, the Jayhawks took some major strides, riding the wave of momentum of the Orange Bowl victory, and will finish with the highest ranked class in Mark Mangino's time in Lawrence. The Hawks did a great job in their own backyard, snagging four of the top nine players in the state. Plus, they did some major damage with key junior college players like national offensive player of the year, running back Jocques Crawford.

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Current Class Rank: No. 25 overall, No. 4 in Big Ten

Tim Brewster and his staff have flat out gotten it done this recruiting season. It was just over a year ago that Brewster was brought on board, and even with the struggling season, Minnesota football has made tremendous strides in the recruiting wars. The Golden Gophers under Brewster have a legit shot at finishing in the national top 25 – something that's never been done before at Minnesota. Stars like MarQueis Gray at quarterback, Brandon Green and Vincent Hill at receiver and Traye Simmons in the defensive backfield could be household names in the Big Ten rather quickly. And so should Minnesota's losing seasons.

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Current Class Rank: No. 21 overall, No. 1 in Big East

The Panthers have to rank right at the top as one of the most pleasant surprises nationally this recruiting season. Not only did they make strides on the field late in the season, they've continued to make strides forward in the recruiting wars. Landing five-star receiver Jonathan Baldwin is something that should help spark the offense even more next season. And they've done a tremendous job also on the defensive side of the ball with guys like Shayne Hale expecting to compete for early time. Their offensive line is also going to get a big boost with Lucas Nix coming aboard.

SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Current Class Rank: No. 49 overall, No. 1 in CUSA

The Golden Eagles have made tremendous strides rather quickly under new coach Larry Fedora. Fedora assembled a great coaching staff that features great coaches and great recruiters like Tony Hughes and Darrell Wyatt. The Eagles are going to finish ahead of several quality teams from the Big 12, ACC, Big East and Pac 10. Wyatt is most well known for recruiting Adrian Peterson to Oklahoma, but his effort at Southern Miss quickly garnered a lot of attention. And Hughes quickly reeled in many of the Eagles top prospects, including star linemen Willie Packer and Quin Sanford. While this class might not register in the top 25, there is definitely a new team to watch out for in Conference USA and things are going to be more difficult for out of state teams to come into Mississippi and get kids away.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Current Class Rank: No. 22 overall, No. 5 in Pac-10

Tyrone Willingham is flat out getting it done in Seattle this recruiting season. UDub might shock some people to be where its ranked, but it shouldn't be a true surprise because the Huskies have a tremendous recruiting base to recruit to – major urban area, great facilities, good tradition and a great fan base. The Huskies have done most of their damage this season in the Northwest with the key additions of stars like Kavario Middleton, Everrette Thompson, Alameda Ta'amu. But stealing Chris Polk away from USC also had to be exciting for the UDub coaches. The Huskies have a young nucleus to work with and adding even more high-level talent from this year's class is sure to help them be even more competitive in the Pac-10.

Update on MarxistGophers Super Tuesday Predictions

I wanted to post an update to my Super Tuesday predictions before I go home. I have Obama picking up Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota, but I flipped California back to Clinton. Obviously, given the number of delegates involved, this is not good for Obama if this scenario plays out. Keep in mind, however, that the Democratic primary isn't winner-take-all in states. Delegates are awarded proportionally. I think it's shaping up for a Hillary lead coming out of Super Tuesday, but it won't be a crushing blow that will knock Obama out of the race. Which means this could continue into March. The only question will be what size the Hillary lead is in delegates after Super Tuesday. If it's close Obama will still have a realistic chance, but if Hillary can open a bit of a lead Obama isn't likely to catch her....

2004 Democratic Primary Vote by County

Another in my continuing series of political maps. The 2004 Democratic primary wasn't that interesting after Iowa, but I thought it would be cool to compare it to the 2008 map that is still in the making.

If anyone has any requests for other maps you want to see me do, please let me know in the comments section of this post.

UPDATE: Republican Primary Vote by County

I've updated the map to show the correct county breakdown in Wyoming. We finally get Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter on the map!! The Republican caucuses in Maine are tonight, so I should have another update tomorrow.

Pledged Democratic Delegates Proportional Map

I found this on wikipedia and had to post it. Why make my own when it already exists.....

Democratic Primary Super Tuesday States

For those who don't know I created this lovely map showing the 22 states that will be voting on Super Tuesday (February 5th), along with the number of delegates at stake in each state. None of the delegates are awarded in winner take all format, as some of the republican states are, but are all proportionally awarded.



Here are my predictions for the upcoming Super Tuesday vote. I think I'm being slightly favorable to Obama, and this still shows a Hillary "win" on Tuesday. This is depressing....

2006 Minnesota Senate Vote by County

Since I did the 2006 Minnesota Governor's race earlier today I thought it would be an easy transition to the 2006 Senate race where Amy Klobuchar destroyed Mark Kennedy. Enjoy!

Just Some Election Fun from the Onion

Mitt Romney Defends Himself Against Allegations Of Tolerance


As Obese Population Rises, More Candidates Courting The Fat Vote


Mysterious Traveler Entrances Town With Utopian Vision Of The Future


In The Know: Candidates Compete For Vital Idgit Vote

2006 Minnesota Governor's Race by County

In my continuing series of political maps, we step back in time to the 2006 governor's race in MN. Pawlenty defeated Mike Hatch in a very tight race.

Polls, Polls, Polls

Thought I'd post some recent poll results that have come out since the Florida primary. They all show Obama closing the gap with Clinton, but don't show him going ahead. If this is indeed the trend, and it continues through Super Tuesday it could be a very good day for Obama. It's very hard to keep this kind of momentum going for any period of time. It should be noted, however, that all of these numbers are before John Edwards announced he was dropping out of the race. And we don't yet know how that will affect the race.

California (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 40

McCain - 32
Romney - 28
Huckabee - 11

Connecticut (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 40
Obama - 40
Edwards - 11

McCain - 42
Romney - 26
Giuliani - 12

Illinois (Rasmussen)
McCain - 34
Romney - 26
Huckabee - 16

Massachusetts (Rasmussen)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 37

New York (PPP)
Clinton - 45
Obama - 33
Edwards - 10

McCain - 34
Giuliani - 20
Romney - 19

Tennessee (PPP)
Clinton - 43
Obama - 32
Edwards - 16

Huckabee - 30
McCain - 26
Romney - 22


Minnesota (MPR/Humphrey Institute)
Clinton - 40
Obama - 33
Edwards - 12
Undecided - 13
Other - 2

McCain - 41
Huckabee - 22
Romney - 17
Guiliani - 6
Paul - 5
Undecided - 10


Election day is still more than nine months away, and the presidential nominees are far from decided. But Larry Jacobs said the poll results on head-to-head match ups show Minnesota could heavily favor the Democratic candidate in November.

"Obama and Clinton have opened up sizeable double digit leads over all the Republican candidates," Jacobs said. "Obama is ahead of McCain by 13 points. Clinton has got a 10 point advantage over McCain. And then when you turn to the Huckabee and Romney and Giuliani matchups, the leads are substantially larger."

California: Clinton 43%, Obama 40%

More evidence of Obama gaining on Hillary in California and nationally. This is from Rasmusson Reports...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow three-percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The survey was conducted in the hours immediately following Florida’s Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by five percentage points in California.

The survey found Edwards with 9% of the vote while 4% said they would vote for some other candidate and another 4% were not sure.

Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party’s liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.

Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.

Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women.

Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of California’s Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 79%.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the state’s voters were certain they had settled on their final choice. That meant nearly a third could still change their mind, a figure that grew when Edwards left the race.

Forty-six percent (46%) said the top voting issue is the economy while 29% mentioned the War in Iraq. Clinton led by fifteen among those who view the economy as the highest priority. Obama led by eight among those who view the War as the top voting issue.

A Rasmussen Reports analysis of the Democratic race notes that “The numbers still favor Clinton. But, as every sports fan knows, sometimes the numbers don’t matter. Sometimes things just fall into place for an upset. More often than not, the underdog comes up a bit short—but not always.”

Clinton continues to hold a modest lead over Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

John Edwards Farewell Address

Obama closing on Hillary in CA and Nationally; Ties in Connecticut

from SFGate.com:

On the Democratic side, the combined results of three nightly samplings of 400 different voters - for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday - found Hillary Rodham Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and John Edwards at 12 percent.

But when taken alone, Sunday's tracking - just a day after Obama's big win in the South Carolina primary - had Obama leading Clinton, 35 percent to 32 percent, with Edwards' share growing to 16 percent. And pretty much the same numbers came up Monday.

One caveat: A prominent political consultant following the numbers emphasizes that while a single night's tracking isn't considered statistically reliable, it does show movement and direction.

Any way you slice it, the source says, the presidential race here is definitely heating up.

Nationally, a Gallop poll shows Obama closing to within 6 points of Hillary, and in CT a Rasmusson poll shows a tie at 40% to 40%.