Obama campaign claims "irregularities" in Louisiana

Per the campaign's blog, under the headline: "After Widespread Reports of Voting Irregularities Obama Campaign Submits Urgent Request for Assistance:"

BATON ROUGE, LA -- The Obama campaign submitted an urgent request for assistance to the Secretary of State’s Division of Elections today, after receiving widespread reports from Democrats across Louisiana who reported that they were not allowed to vote because their party affiliation had been switched. Hundreds of Louisiana democrats went to the polls to vote in today’s presidential primary and found that they were now on registration lists as Independent or Unaffiliated voters.

Obama faced a similar hurdle in California, where some poll workers appear to have misinformed independents seeking to vote in the Democratic primary.

Choosing to go public with complaints, though, is always a political as well as a practical move, and it may increase the sense among some Obama supporters of Clinton dirty tricks -- something the Obama campaign isn't alleging in either case.

This primary, with its huge turnout and surging independent cadre, is really straining a very creaky elections system.

Predictions Results Map

A quick look back at MarxistGophers predictions for Super Tuesday.

The states I picked correctly before super tuesday are colored in the winning candidates colors, and the states where I picked incorrectly are in black. Not surprisingly, I did a little better with the Dems than I did with the Republicans. I guess I just don't understand Republican voters well enough......I'll have to work on that.

More Polls in Upcoming States

The next week is looking good for Obama in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, DC, and Virginia. Then comes some tougher states, but I am surprised to see that Obama is trailing Clinton in Wisconsin by 9%. That could easily change in the next week though.


MARYLAND
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 52%
Clinton 33%

VIRGINIA
primary Tue. Feb. 12th
SurveyUSA
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%

Insider Advantage
Obama 52%
Clinton 37%

WISCONSIN
primary Tue. Feb. 19th
ARG
Clinton 50%
Obama 41%

Presidential Primary Results by County

These are the updated results after the Super Tuesday states. New Mexico is still not reporting results for the Democrats, but I'll get that up as soon as they report.

Saturday is the Democratic caucuses in Washington and Nebraska, and the primary in Louisiana.

Convention Delegate Fight Update

This is a post from Open Left that I'm republishing here because its awesome!


by: Chris Bowers
Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 13:17
After yesterday's explosive discussion on delegates and a brokered convention here on Open Left, I've been talking to some party insiders to try and get a better handle on the situation. Here is what I can report:

1. When Matt joked yesterday about preparing for "a party platform fight over mandates as a test of delegate strength," he was actually pretty on target. The fight over delegates will occur on three main committees: the platform committee, the credentials committee, and the rules committee. The fact is that right now there is not system in place to select delegates from Michigan and Florida, but the fight will encompass those three committees.

2. The rules committee is dominated by Clinton supporters, even though it was the rules committee that stripped the Michigan and Florida primaries as the means to select delegates from those two states. Be prepared for a change of direction from the rules committee. As James Boyce wrote yesterday: "[n]ote to Obama supporters, you better have enough delegates to win with those [Michigan and Florida] counting for Hillary, trust me on this. In fact, lawyer up now." Indeed, trust him on this one.

3. If Obama is going to turn back the rules committee, the credentials committee is the place where he needs to make his stand. That committee is, I believe, composed of three members from each state and all of the territories holding nomination contests (D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam, Democrats Abroad, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands). An additional twenty-five members are chosen by the presumptive nominee or, in the absence of a presumptive nominee, by Howard Dean himself. As such, this committee should be significantly less friendly to the Michigan and Florida demands from the Clinton campaign. I believe that the winner of each contest chooses the three members from each state and territory on the committee, but it isn't clear to me what "winner" means. For example, who won Nevada: Clinton who had the most state delegates, or Obama, who is projected to have the most national delegates? Even if that will be determined at a later date, then who won New Hampshire? Clinton won a plurality of the popular vote, the two campaigns were tied in pledged delegates, and Obama leads in the overall delegation from New Hampshire when super delegates are included. Still, since it seems Obama has a strong edge in smaller states and contests today, this committee should be favorable to him.

4. The Clinton campaign is trying to use super delegates as a firewall, so any hope of a deal on that front should also be scrapped (just as any hope for an early deal on Michigan and Florida should also be scrapped). From my perspective, it is of utmost importance that the Democratic nominee be the candidate who won the most votes and popular caucus support during the January 3rd to June 3rd nominating contests. I also think it is foolish to assume that super delegates will simply line up behind Obama if he narrowly wins the most pledged delegates (even with Michigan and Florida included), as long as Clinton can still win the nomination with the support of super delegates. As such, I think it is up to us to start a pressure campaign on super delegates to support whoever wins the most pledged delegates and popular support. This means to stop counting super delegates in delegate totals immediately, to emphasize the greater democratic value of pledged delegates, and to emphasize the notion that no Democratic nominee is the legitimate choice of the party's rank and file unless s/he wins the most pledged delegates (popular votes would be even better, of course, but some states are not counting the popular vote). We need to let the party's leaders know that anything else is unacceptable.

This is a murky process, and I will have more later today. I'm surprised at the interest my post generated yesterday, but let me just say that I'm not the only Democrat who sees a teetering mound of flaming wreckage appearing on the horizon. The Clinton campaign is not going to budge on either super delegates or their preferred mechanism for the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates, and they have a lot of insider support to get their way on both. It is up to us to make sure that the party has a legitimate nominee, and the will of the party's primary voters and caucus participants is not thwarted. Howard Dean needs to show some leadership on this one, too.

Update: The composition of the platform, rules, and credentials committees can be seen here. Also, commenter joejoejoe has more.

Yes We Can!

The Yes We Can Song
by will.i.am

I was sitting in my recording studio watching the debates...
Torn between the candidates

I was never really big on politics...
and actually I’m still not big on politics...
but 4 years ago, me and the black eyed peas supported Kerry...
And we supported Kerry with all our might...
We performed and performed and performed for the DNC...
doing all we could do to get the youth involved...

The outcome of the last 2 elections has saddened me...
on how unfair, backwards, upside down, unbalanced, untruthful,
corrupt, and just simply, how wrong the world and "politics" are...

So this year i wanted to get involved and do all i could early...

And i found myself torn...
because this time it’s not that simple...
our choices aren’t as clear as the last elections ...
last time it was so obvious...
Bush and war
vs
no Bush and no war...

But this time it’s not that simple...
and there are a lot of people that are torn just like i am...

So for awhile I put it off and i was going to wait until it was decided for me...

And then came New Hampshire...

And i was captivated...

Inspired...

I reflected on my life...
and the blessings I have...
and the people who fought for me to have these rights and blessings...

and I’m not talking about a "black thing"
I’m talking about a "human thing" me as a "person"
an American...

That speech made me think of Martin Luther King...
Kennedy...
and Lincoln...
and all the others that have fought for what we have today...

what America is "supposed" to be...

freedom...
equality...
and truth...

and thats not what we have today...
we think we are free...
but in reality terror and fear controls our decisions...

this is not the America that our pioneers and leaders fought and
died for...

and then there was New Hampshire

it was that speech...
like many great speeches...
that one moved me...
because words and ideas are powerful...

It made me think...
and realize that today we have "very few" leaders...
maybe none...

but that speech...

it inspired me...
it inspired me to look inside myself and outwards towards the world...
it inspired me to want to change myself to better the world...
and take a "leap" towards change...
and hope that others become inspired to do the same...
change themselves..
change their greed...
change their fears...
and if we "change that"
"then hey"..
we got something right...???...

1 week later after the speech settled in me...
I began making this song...
I came up with the idea to turn his speech into a song...
because that speech effected and touched my inner core like nothing in a very long time...

it spoke to me...

because words and ideas are powerful...

I just wanted to add a melody to those words...
I wanted the inspiration that was bubbling inside me to take over...

so i let it..

I wasn't afraid to stand for something...
to stand for "change"...
I wasn't afraid of "fear"...
it was pure inspiration...

so I called my friends...
and they called their friends...
in a matter of 2 days...
We made the song and video...

Usually this process would take months...
a bunch of record company people figuring out strategies and release dates...
interviews...
all that stuff...
but this time i took it in my own hands...
so i called my friends sarah pantera, mike jurkovac, fred goldring, and jesse dylan to help make it happen...
and they called their friends..
and we did it together in 48 hours...
and instead of putting it in the hands of profit we put it in the hands of inspiration...

then we put it on the net for the world to feel...

When you are truly inspired..
magic happens...
incredible things happen...
love happens..
(and with that combination)

"love, and inspiration"

change happens...

"change for the better"
Inspiration breeds change...

"Positive change"...

no one on this planet is truly experienced to handle the obstacles we face today...
Terror, fear, lies, agendas, politics, money, all the above...
It’s all scary...

Martin Luther King didn't have experience to lead...
Kennedy didn't have experience to lead...
Susan B. Anthony...
Nelson Mandella...
Rosa Parks...
Gandhi...
Anne Frank...
and everyone else who has had a hand in molding the freedoms we have and take for granted today...

no one truly has experience to deal with the world today...

they just need "desire, strength, courage ability, and passion" to change...
and to stand for something even when people say it's not possible...

America would not be here "today" if we didn’t stand and fight for
change "yesterday"...
Everything we have as a "people" is because of the "people" who fought for
change...
and whoever is the President has to realize we have a lot of changing to do

I'm not trying to convince people to see things how i do...
I produced this song to share my new found inspiration and how I've been moved...
I hope this song will make you feel...
love...
and think...
and be inspired just like the speech inspired me...

that’s all...

Let's all come together like America is supposed to...
Like Japan did after Hiroshima...

that was less than 65 years ago...
and look at Japan now...

they did it together...
they did it...

"We can't?...

Are you serious..?..

WE CAN!!!

Yes we can...
A United "America"
Democrats, Republicans and Independents together...
Building a new America

We can do it...
"TOGETHER"

Please visit www.yeswecansong.com

Thank you for reading and listening...
will.i.am

Looking Ahead to States after Super Tuesday

I think tonight will end in a virtual tie, sending the nomination into March. The rest of the primary season is state by state, which I think is an advantage to Obama. Coming up THIS SATURDAY is Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana. While there are no polls out yet in Lousiana or Nebraska, a SurveyUSA poll of Washington showed Obama with a 13 point lead, 53% TO 40% over Clinton. After that Maine has a caucus on Sunday the 10th, and then on Tuesday the 12th we have Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. By next Tuesday, we might have a clearer picture of who the nominee will be.

Republican Super Tuesday Predictions

In the interest of fairness I thought I'd make my predictions for the Republican Super Tuesday states as well. No one can ever accuse me of being partisan!

Final Super Tuesday Predictions from MarxistGopher

It looks like a split to me. Whoever wins the close states, it will be close...CLOSE. The delegate divide will be less than 100 and the race will continue on into March....which I think favors Obama. Given the polls released this morning my predictions may be a little conservative for Obama, but I'm a pessimist by nature.....

Looking Like A Good Day for Obama!

This is part of an article for Reuters. If this poll is anywhere near correct it suggests a huge Obama swing across the country that could make tonight decisive for an Obama victory! On the other hand, Zogby polls tend to favor Obama, and other polls suggest a much closer race or even a substantial Hillary lead in California......so who knows.

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama surged to a big lead over Hillary Clinton in California hours before "Super Tuesday" voting began in 24 states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

In the Republican race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held a 7-point advantage on Arizona Sen. John McCain in California, while McCain added to commanding double-digit leads in New York and New Jersey.

On a sprawling day of coast-to-coast voting, the biggest ever in a U.S. primary race, the U.S. presidential contenders in both parties were fighting to win a huge cache of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.

Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, are in a hard-fought battle for the Democratic presidential nomination and split the first four significant contests.

"There is clear Obama momentum in California," pollster John Zogby said. "But in New Jersey, things seemed to swing in favor of Clinton, and Missouri was very mixed."

-------------------------------------


US Democratic Party voters in Indonesia, where Barack Obama spent part of his childhood, handed him a win over Hillary Clinton in the first voting abroad on "Super Tuesday," party officials said.

Seventy-five percent of nearly 100 votes cast by expatriate Americans just past midnight (1700 GMT Monday) went to Obama and 25 percent went to Clinton, Democrats Abroad officials here said.

Obama Surging in all States in Latest Polls

Massachusetts
Suffolk Univ.
Obama 46%
Clinton 44%

Connecticut
SurveyUSA
Obama 48%
Clinton 46%

New Jersey
SurveyUSA
Clinton 52%
Obama 41%

Zogby
Clinton 43%
Obama 43%

New York
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 38%

Illinois
SurveyUSA
Obama 66%
Clinton 30%

California
Zogby
Obama 46%
Clinton 40%

Missouri
Zogby
Obama 47%
Clinton 42%

Georgia
Zogby
Obama 48%
Clinton 31%