TEXAS
Feb 15 ARG
Obama 48%, Clinton 42%
Feb 15 Rasmussen
Clinton 54%, Obama 38%
Feb 14 IVR
Clinton 49%, Obama 41%
This probably means that Clinton is ahead, but not by that much. I tend to believe that the ARG and Rasmussen polls are outliers and Clinton is probably up by 8-10 pts. right now. I have no evidence of this, just going with my gut
Friday, February 15, 2008
Civil Rights Icon John Lewis Switches Super-Delegate Vote From Hillary To Obama
By Eric Kleefeld - February 14, 2008, 10:26PM
This is big news, and may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy. The New York Times reports that Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a legend of the civil rights movement who had endorsed Hillary last year, is switching his super-delegate vote from her over to Barack Obama.
Lewis stopped short of formally switching his endorsement over to Obama, but said he would make a decision on that matter within a few days. Lewis also said that he and other lawmakers would meet soon to decide just how they should involve themselves in the nomination fight — and he cited the super-delegate battle as a pitfall that could weaken the party's hopes this Fall.
In short, it looks like the Hillary campaign probably can't count on the super-delegates to save them, should they lose out in the elected delegate race. So if it becomes clear that Obama ends up with an insurmountable lead — or Hillary, for that matter — there could be a strong message from super-delegates that the loser has to concede defeat and close up shop.
This is big news, and may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy. The New York Times reports that Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a legend of the civil rights movement who had endorsed Hillary last year, is switching his super-delegate vote from her over to Barack Obama.
Lewis stopped short of formally switching his endorsement over to Obama, but said he would make a decision on that matter within a few days. Lewis also said that he and other lawmakers would meet soon to decide just how they should involve themselves in the nomination fight — and he cited the super-delegate battle as a pitfall that could weaken the party's hopes this Fall.
In short, it looks like the Hillary campaign probably can't count on the super-delegates to save them, should they lose out in the elected delegate race. So if it becomes clear that Obama ends up with an insurmountable lead — or Hillary, for that matter — there could be a strong message from super-delegates that the loser has to concede defeat and close up shop.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Obama ad running in Wisconsin
Earlier this week, the Clinton campaign started running an attack ad in Wisconsin. Today the Obama campaign released this ad in response. I think this signals a new phase in the campaign. It's going to get ugly before this is cleared up.
Latest Polls don't Look Good for Obama (Hillary might still win this)
WISCONSIN
Rasmussen
Obama 47%
Clinton 43%
Strategic Vision
Obama 45%
Clinton 41%
OHIO
Rasmussen
Clinton 51%
Obama 37%
Quinnipiac
Clinton 55%
Obama 34%
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton 52%
Obama 36%
Rasmussen
Obama 47%
Clinton 43%
Strategic Vision
Obama 45%
Clinton 41%
OHIO
Rasmussen
Clinton 51%
Obama 37%
Quinnipiac
Clinton 55%
Obama 34%
PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton 52%
Obama 36%
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Why Obama is Winning in So Many States
This is an excerpt from yesterday's Young Turks. I'm starting to come to this conclusion myself. Obama seems to have a much better on the ground organization than Clinton. His massive grassroots support combined with his choice to spend money on local field offices and 50 state strategy are REALLY paying off.
Some Analysis from The Votemaster
Analysis taken from the great election site electoral-vote.com
In a development that should make Republicans nervous, Obama got more votes (619,000) in Virginia than all the Republican candidates combined (485,000). In fact, the combined Democratic vote in Virginia was more than double the combined Republican vote. And this in a state that hasn't voted Democratic in a Presidential election since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson wiped Barry Goldwater off the map. If the Democratic enthusiasm is running so high in places like Virginia, what's going to happen in the general election in true swing states like Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado? In Maryland, the Democrats got over 2.5x more votes than the Republicans, but Maryland is traditionally a blue state, so that was to be expected.
The Virginia exit polls, as reported by the NY Times, are enlightening. Obama swept every demographic category except white women, which Clinton won 54% to 45%. Black women went for Obama by the amazing margin of 85% to 15%. Thus black women clearly identify by race stronger than by gender. In contrast, white men went for Obama 56% to 42%. In what should be a huge red flag for Clinton, voters making less than $50,000 a year, the core of her base, voted for Obama 60% to 38% and seniors (60+) went for Obama 54% to 46%. Obama also swept up the voters without college degrees 61% to 39%. None of this is good news for Clinton. Her base has been the downscale, older, high school graduates, which is not a bad base to have since there are a lot of voters in these categories, but they seem to be moving away from her. She did slightly better in Maryland, where she nosed out Obama among the seniors 48% to 47% but still lost among voters making less than $50,000 a year and voters without college degrees.
Now on to the Republican side. John McCain won all three primaries, increasing his delegate total and making him unstoppable at this point. But as the votes show, there is still a lot of resistance to him. In Virginia he got just 50% of the vote, for example. He may have more delegates than Huckabee, but he hasn't closed the deal entirely yet. McCain's victory was not as broad as Obama's. In Virginia he lost among younger voters (17-29), those without college degrees, conservatives, and Protestants. While Huckabee can make life slightly uncomfortable for McCain for a few more weeks, he has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Apparently Huckabee's strategy at this point is to do sufficiently well that McCain feels forced to choose him as Veep to mollify the extreme conservatives in the party.
Obama hasn't even gotten the nomination and already he has coattails. In congressional district MD-04 in suburban Montgomery and Prince George's Counties surrounding D.C., there was a fierce battle in the Democratic primary for a seat in the House of Representatives. In that district, a progressive young black community organizer, Donna Edwards, challenged and beat a popular eight-term incumbent Democrat, Albert Wynn. Edwards ran against him in 2006 and lost. The difference this time was all the enthusiastic young Obama supporters who showed up to vote. Since MD-04 has a PVI of D+30, she can go visit Nancy Pelosi today to start discussing office space and committee assignments. The Washington Post has a story about her upset win. In MD-01, Wayne Gilchrest (R), may also lose a primary.
In a development that should make Republicans nervous, Obama got more votes (619,000) in Virginia than all the Republican candidates combined (485,000). In fact, the combined Democratic vote in Virginia was more than double the combined Republican vote. And this in a state that hasn't voted Democratic in a Presidential election since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson wiped Barry Goldwater off the map. If the Democratic enthusiasm is running so high in places like Virginia, what's going to happen in the general election in true swing states like Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado? In Maryland, the Democrats got over 2.5x more votes than the Republicans, but Maryland is traditionally a blue state, so that was to be expected.
The Virginia exit polls, as reported by the NY Times, are enlightening. Obama swept every demographic category except white women, which Clinton won 54% to 45%. Black women went for Obama by the amazing margin of 85% to 15%. Thus black women clearly identify by race stronger than by gender. In contrast, white men went for Obama 56% to 42%. In what should be a huge red flag for Clinton, voters making less than $50,000 a year, the core of her base, voted for Obama 60% to 38% and seniors (60+) went for Obama 54% to 46%. Obama also swept up the voters without college degrees 61% to 39%. None of this is good news for Clinton. Her base has been the downscale, older, high school graduates, which is not a bad base to have since there are a lot of voters in these categories, but they seem to be moving away from her. She did slightly better in Maryland, where she nosed out Obama among the seniors 48% to 47% but still lost among voters making less than $50,000 a year and voters without college degrees.
Now on to the Republican side. John McCain won all three primaries, increasing his delegate total and making him unstoppable at this point. But as the votes show, there is still a lot of resistance to him. In Virginia he got just 50% of the vote, for example. He may have more delegates than Huckabee, but he hasn't closed the deal entirely yet. McCain's victory was not as broad as Obama's. In Virginia he lost among younger voters (17-29), those without college degrees, conservatives, and Protestants. While Huckabee can make life slightly uncomfortable for McCain for a few more weeks, he has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Apparently Huckabee's strategy at this point is to do sufficiently well that McCain feels forced to choose him as Veep to mollify the extreme conservatives in the party.
Obama hasn't even gotten the nomination and already he has coattails. In congressional district MD-04 in suburban Montgomery and Prince George's Counties surrounding D.C., there was a fierce battle in the Democratic primary for a seat in the House of Representatives. In that district, a progressive young black community organizer, Donna Edwards, challenged and beat a popular eight-term incumbent Democrat, Albert Wynn. Edwards ran against him in 2006 and lost. The difference this time was all the enthusiastic young Obama supporters who showed up to vote. Since MD-04 has a PVI of D+30, she can go visit Nancy Pelosi today to start discussing office space and committee assignments. The Washington Post has a story about her upset win. In MD-01, Wayne Gilchrest (R), may also lose a primary.
Wake up Call for Obama Supporters: Clinton with wide lead in Ohio
After Obama big wins last night, we should all take a second and think about weather this nomination is over yet. Hillary has a huge lead in Ohio according to this SurveyUSA poll (which had been the most accurate in the primaries so far), and she is, in all likelyhood, going to win the Texas primary.
NORTH CAROLINA
SurveyUSA
Obama 50%
Clinton 40%
OHIO
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 39%
WISCONSIN
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%
RHODE ISLAND
Brown U.
Obama 36%
Clinton 28%
NORTH CAROLINA
SurveyUSA
Obama 50%
Clinton 40%
OHIO
SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%
Obama 39%
WISCONSIN
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%
RHODE ISLAND
Brown U.
Obama 36%
Clinton 28%
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
UPDATED: Dem & Rep Primary Vote by County
This is what the race looks like up to today (before Potomac Tuesday). All states are in except the contentious Washington caucuses on the Republican side.
The Democratic Primary Race after Today
After Obama sweeps today, it looks really good for him in all but 3 states in my opinion. I predict he will win every state except Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Vermont and Rhode Island. Unfortunately for him, those include the 3 most populous states remaining. If this happens it will come down to the super delegates and Howard Dean to decide the nominee. Now, If Obama can pull out a win in Ohio things look better for him but I think we'd still be looking at a convention fight over Michigan and Florida delegates. If someone wants to win this thing outright before the convention (and terrible infighting) Obama probably needs to win almost every state including Ohio and Pennsylvania. If he loses 1 or both of those then the Democratic Party has a major problem. How they deal with that is anyones guess.......but that's a topic I don't want to get into right now.
February 19th: Hawaii, Wisconsin
March 4th: Texas, Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island
March 8th: Wyoming
March 11th: Mississippi
April 22nd: Pennsylvania
May 6th: Indiana, North Carolina
May 13th: West Virginia
May 20th: Kentucky, Oregon
June 3rd: Montana, South Dakota
Potomac Primary Delegate Baseline
from MyDD....
Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.
Virginia (83 delegates)
Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6
Maryland (70 delegates)
Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6
Washington, DC (15 delegates)
Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1
It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.
Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.
Virginia (83 delegates)
Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6
Maryland (70 delegates)
Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6
Washington, DC (15 delegates)
Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1
It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.
The Rebel Girl
The begining of this video, is an audio narrative by Elizabeth Gurley Flynn, with images of her, as well as a quote of hers about women in the I.W.W. This Narative is commonly used on recordings to introduce the song "The Rebel Girl" in which Joe Hill dedicated to Elezabeth Guley Flynn. The second part, is the song "The Rebel Girl" Writen by Joe Hill, and performed by Hazel Dickens.
Emma Goldman: Well known anachist writer and feminist, took part in the IWW free speech fight during the first world war.
Helen Keller: Mostly known for her disability, was an active member of the I.W.W. and influential feminist.
Grace Silver: Mother of once famous actress Queen Silver. Active organizer in the I.W.W. Grace and Queen Silver were influental supporters of evolution, and athiests.
Lucy Parsons: Wife of Albert Parsons a haymarket Martyr, organizer for the I.W.W. and Communist Party.
Judi Bari: Radical enviromentalist, feminist, and member of the I.W.W. and Earth First. Victom of a failed assasination, later died of cancer.
Mother Jones: Helped form the I.W.W. in 1905. One of the most well known organizers, and active socailists of the day. She would most likely be annoyed that liberals have a magazine named after her.
Lesbia Harford: She was a well known poet in Australia, and a member of the Australian contingent of the I.W.W.
Amelia Siblich: Known as "Flaming Milka" due to her wearing red while at only 19 she helped lead a coal strike in Colorado.
Rosie Kane: Former member of the Scotish Parlement, member of the Scotish Socialist Party, and the I.W.W.
Caroline Leckie: (Same as above)
Dorothy Day: Member of the I.W.W. Formed the Anarchist organization "Catholic Workers".
Charlene Sato:(It's misspelled in the video) Member of the I.W.W. supporter of the Hawaiian-based LACASA, and
important in sociolinguistics.
Faith Petric: I.W.W. Member and folk singer.
Anne Feenley: I.W.W. Member and folk singer.
Charolotte Anita Whitney: As far as I know, had never joined the I.W.W. Yet was an active communist. Was arrested in California for making a speech on behalf of an I.W.W. member which violated an anti-syncialism law, established to crush the I.W.W.
Suley Ayala: I.W.W. Member who joined during recent organizing of Starbucks in New York City. She had faced religious persecution several times due to her faith as a Wiccan.
The rest of the photos are of random women in the I.W.W. (Names unkown). The first is at a Rally in 2007 in Seatle WA. The second is a Starbucks worker in New York City. The third is of two women in Scotland U.K. Fourth and Fifth.. Starbucks workers in NYC, and lastly is the logo for the I.W.W. Woman's Caucus.
Obama Cruising to Victory in Potomac Tuesday....and Wisconsin next week
WISCONSIN
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%
MARYLAND
ARG
Obama 55%
Clinton 38%
SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 32%
VIRGINIA
ARG
Obama 57%, Clinton 40%
SurveyUSA
Obama 60%
Clinton 38%
PPP
Obama 50%
Clinton 39%
MARYLAND
ARG
Obama 55%
Clinton 38%
SurveyUSA
Obama 55%
Clinton 32%
VIRGINIA
ARG
Obama 57%, Clinton 40%
SurveyUSA
Obama 60%
Clinton 38%
Monday, February 11, 2008
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