Clinton is on the Ropes and Being Pounded

Another clip from The Young Turks attacking Hillary Clinton. Ahhh, she's really becoming an easy target.

Clinton's Feeler About Going After Obama's Pledged Delegates

Updated Primary Results Map by County

These now include everything through February 19th.

Secret Service Abrubtly Stops Screening at Obama Rally in Dallas

Does this seem as alarming to anyone else as it does to me. Especially since it's happening in Dallas!!

Police concerned about order to stop screening
By JACK DOUGLAS Jr.
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Barack Obama speaks Wednesday at a Democratic rally in Dallas' Reunion Arena. Police were told to stop screening people for weapons before the rally began.

DALLAS -- Security details at Barack Obama's rally Wednesday stopped screening people for weapons at the front gates more than an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage at Reunion Arena.

The order to put down the metal detectors and stop checking purses and laptop bags came as a surprise to several Dallas police officers who said they believed it was a lapse in security.

Dallas Deputy Police Chief T.W. Lawrence, head of the Police Department's homeland security and special operations divisions, said the order -- apparently made by the U.S. Secret Service -- was meant to speed up the long lines outside and fill the arena's vacant seats before Obama came on.

"Sure," said Lawrence, when asked if he was concerned by the great number of people who had gotten into the building without being checked. But, he added, the turnout of more than 17,000 people seemed to be a "friendly crowd."

The Secret Service did not return a call from the Star-Telegram seeking comment.

Doors opened to the public at 10 a.m., and for the first hour security officers scanned each person who came in and checked their belongings in a process that kept movement of the long lines at a crawl. Then, about 11 a.m., an order came down to allow the people in without being checked.

Several Dallas police officers said it worried them that the arena was packed with people who got in without even a cursory inspection.

They spoke on condition of anonymity because, they said, the order was made by federal officials who were in charge of security at the event.

"How can you not be concerned in this day and age," said one policeman.

New Polls in Texas and Ohio show Clinton still leading, but the gap is closing

Ohio
ABC News
Clinton- 50%, Obama- 43%

Pennsylvania
Franklin+Marshall Coll.
Clinton- 44%, Obama- 32%

Texas
ABC News
Clinton- 48%, Obama- 47%

Constituent Dynamics
Clinton- 46%, Obama- 45%

IVR Polls
Clinton- 50%, Obama- 45%

Rasmussen
Clinton- 47%, Obama- 44%

Obama Victory Speech after Landslide Victories in WI & HI

Obama wins 9th and 10th States in a Row......is it over for Hillary?

I'm republishing todays entire entry form electoral-vote.com. This is the best synopsis on the state of the race that I've read, and thought it worthy of passing along.....(its much better than anything I could write)

Barack Obama made it 10 in a row by winning the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucus. He is ahead in momentum and delegates, but as Yogi Berra once famously pointed out, it ain't over til it's over. If Hillary Clinton can pull off big victories in Ohio and Texas on March 4 (and maybe little victories in Vermont and Rhode Island), she can blunt his momentum and get back even. If Obama wins Ohio and Texas, Clinton is basically finished. Thus in contrast to what everyone expected at the start of the campaign, superduper Tuesday on Feb. 5 didn't determine the winner. It will be later events.

Here are the results from yesterday's elections.
State Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Hawaii 24% 76%
Wisconsin 41% 58% 55% 37% 5%
Washington 49% 22% 7%

Obama's win in Hawaii, where 20 pledged and 9 unpledged delegates were at stake, was expected since he is a native son. Besides, Hawaii is a caucus state and winning caucuses requires superior on-the-ground organization, something Obama's enthusiastic young supporters have provided in spades.

Wisconsin is a different story. It is ajacent to the state Obama represents in the Senate, Illinois, but Clinton was born in Illinois, so that might have been worth something. Apparently not enough though.

Now let's look at the Wisconsin exit polls as reported by the NY Times. Obama won the men by 61% to 35% but he also (narrowly) won the women, 51% to 49%. He won the people making more than $50,000 a year easily, 59% to 39% but he also won the under $50,000 voters (narrowly), again 51% to 49%. Women and downscale voters have been the core of Clinton's candidacy up until now. If Obama can win huge victories among men and upscale voters and break even with women and downscale voters, Clinton is in deep trouble.

Education is probably the clearest separator between the two of them. Among high school graduates, Clinton won by 8%. Among people with some college, Obama won by 14%. With voters holding a college degree he won by 18%. Finally, among people holding a postgraduate degree by a huge 32%. The picture is clear here: the more education you have, the more likely you are to support Obama. In Wisconsin, 73% of the Democratic voters had at least some college. It is interesting to see how Obama is viewed. Fundamentally, he is not seen as the black candidate (except by blacks, who are a tiny fraction of the Wisconsin population). Instead he is seen as the educated candidate, a guy with degrees with Columbia and the Harvard Law School (which apparently trumps a degree from Wellesley College, which is what Hillary Clinton has).

Another surprising item is the partisan breakdown of the vote. Among Democrats, Obama squeak by Clinton 50% to 49%. But among independents and Republicans he won near 2 to 1. Religion was not a huge factor, with Obama winning both the churched and the unchurched. Among Protestants Obama won by 14%; among Catholics Clinton edged him out by 1%. No Jews were reported voting (probably both of Wisconsin's U.S. senators, Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold--both Democrats and both Jewish--were out of town).

Finally age played out as it has in the past. the 72% of the voters under 65 preferred Obama 61% to 37% while those 65 and older went for Clinton 60% to 39%. No specific breakdown by age and gender was reported, but based on past data, Clinton's lead among seniors may be due to a prodominance of older women.

All in all, Obama is making great inroads into Clinton's base. He is winning his base of educated, upscale, and young voters by huge margins and fighting her to a draw among her core supporters of less well educated, downscale, and older voters. Even more frightening for her must be the thought that both Texas and Ohio have open primaries. With the Republican race all over but the shoutin', most of the independents in Texas and Ohio are going to vote in the Democratic primaries there and they have been breaking 2 to 1 for Obama over Clinton. If the election comes down to Obama vs. McCain, the independents are going to be in hog heaven--two candidates they really like. If it is Clinton vs. McCain, they are going to break strongly for McCain, except maybe older women. And even that is less sure, since a 72-year-old candidate may exert a lot of pull on the geriatic vote.

While it will take several days for the polls to reflect yesterday's results, the trading markets respong much faster. At www.intrade.com as of this morning stock in Obama was trading at $79 and stock in Clinton was trading at $19. This means you can buy 10 shares of Obama for $79. If he gets the nomination, you get $100. If he loses the nomination, you get zero. If you think Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination, this is a good time to buy stock in her. For every $19 you invest, you get $100 if she is nominated. Here are the charts for the past 90 days.
Clinton Obama

In the general election market, 10 shares of Obama to win the Presidency cost $56, 10 shares of Clinton cost $12 and 10 shares of McCain cost $35. The political futures market thus thinks it likely that Barack Obama will not only win the Democratic nomination, but will also win the general election and gives Hillary Clinton hardly any chance to become President. McCain may think so, too, at least about the nomination part. In his speech yesterday, he began attacking Obama already. Nary a word about Clinton.

Now on the the much less exciting Republican side. Mike Huckabee keeps plugging away, but it is not entirely clear why. John McCain basically has the nomination locked up. However, he got only 55% of the vote in Wisconsin, which means that he still has his work cut out for him convincing conservatives that he is their man, despite endorsements by two President Bushes (two Presidents Bush? like two attorneys general?). McCain beat Huckabee in most demographic categories, including men, women, upscale, downscale, college educated, HS grad, Protestant, and Catholic. However, Huckabee won by 20% among evangelicals and by 23% among the voters for whom "shares my values" is top priority.

Here is a new Ohio poll, taken before the Wisconsin results were known.
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Ohio SurveyUSA Feb. 18 52% 43% 61% 29% 5%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources. They differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, some sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Delegates

Source Clinton Obama Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
NY Times1081 1078 12 808 139 198 5
AP 1245 1319 26 942 253 245 14
CNN 1239 1301 26 918 286 217 16
ABC 1261 1355 35 895 274 242 14
CBS 1252 1349 26 856 166 199 10
MSNBC 1262 1323 822 282 243 104

Billy Bragg "Mr. Love & Justice" Website

A website for Billy Bragg's new album, "Mr. Love and Justice," is now up. The site includes track-lists, videos, and many more little extras and info. Here's a couple of the videos that are currently up in the site

Dallas D.A.'s Office Finds JFK Memorabilia

from MaryFerrell.org:

A safe in the Dallas County district attorney's office was opened and found to contain a cache of JFK-related materials, according to a story in the Dallas Morning News. Items include personal letters to Dallas D.A. Henry Wade (pictured at left), records from the Jack Ruby trial, and clothing possibly belonging to Ruby and Oswald. Attracting the most attention is a two-page transcript marked with a sticker "Plaintiff's Exhibit 27" which purports to be a conversation between Oswald and Ruby on Oct 4, plotting JFK's murder. The dialog, which reads like a grade B movie script ("Lee: You said the boys in Chicago want to get rid of the Attorney General.....I can still do it, all I need is my rifle and a tall building; but it will take time, maybe six months to find the right place; but I'll have to have some money to live on while I do the planning.") may be just that. Wade did work with producers on a movie entitled Countdown in Dallas, and letters discussing the film were discovered in the safe. The transcript is similar but not identical to CE 2821, an FBI report of an alleged Oct 4 meeting of Oswald and Ruby at the Carousel Club, as related by Carroll Jarnagin.

Ouch! That's Gotta Hurt. (but damn it's funny)

Franken leads Coleman in MN Senate Poll

According to the latest poll from Rasmussen, Al Franken has taken a 49% to 46% lead over Norm Coleman. Norm Coleman appears to be very vulnerable, and Franken's numbers have been slowly increasing over the past few months. Winning the MN Senate race would also be very important to the Dems nationally, and would probably help increase their majority in the Senate.....which would be a great help to ?President Obama?

Unofficial Tallies in City Understated Obama Vote

An article in last weeks New York Times points to some serious shenanigans in the New York Democratic primary.

Latest Polls

These newest numbers look very good for Barack Obama. It looks as if he'll win Wisconsin tonight, although not by huge numbers. But what's really good news are the numbers in Texas. He's closed a 20 pt gap down into the margin of error. If Obama can pull Texas out of the bag, that will be the end for Hillary, even if she wins Ohio and Pennsylvania.

TEXAS
Opinion Research
Clinton 50%
Obama 48%

SurveyUSA
Clinton 50%
Obama 45%

WISCONSIN
Obama 52%
Clinton 42%