A guest post by Matt Carhart
Even though the blog master claims that politics is one of his sites principal themes, he somehow managed to completely ignore the 2nd most important election in the English speaking world. In light of this oversight, and because I am currently experiencing something of a personal “British Renaissance”, devouring all things British (remember the Avengers? I can’t wait for the world cup next year- go England!) , I decided to take a moment and present my analysis of the recent election. Since we are not likely to witness any sane, reasonable or legitimate politics in this country any time soon, it seems appropriate to examine British politics in order to fill the void and see what we are missing. I shall look at the three main contenders in the British election, the conservatives (tories), the Liberal Democrats, and Labour. I will describe the results of the election from each of the three party’s perspectives classifying each of them into the winners, losers, or neutral category, and then offer an overall assessment of the election and the future prospects for each party.
The Big Losers
Given the raw voting numbers and the number of seats in parliament they gained, it may shock many to discover that I am putting the conservatives in the big loser’s bracket. But a closer examination of the situation reveals that from the conservative perspective this was a deeply disappointing election. First, let’s put the conservative’s current MP (Member of Parliament) position in historical context. In 1983 when Labour was widely considered to have suffered a devastating defeat at the hands of Thatcher, Labour held slightly over 200 seats; today the tories hold less than 200 seats. In addition, because Britain does not use proportional representation, the tories are actually over-represented in parliament so their number of MP’s is not an accurate reflection of their support in the country. Most of their support comes from rural areas in England and like in the U.S. these places have more political representation than they deserve.
Second, the actual number and percentage (32%) of voters that cast ballots for the tories in this election remained virtually unchanged from the 2001 election that was clearly a Labour landslide. Moreover, in many constituencies where the conservatives picked up seats it was the result of Labour voters turning to the Lib Dems or staying home rather than the tories gaining significant votes. This means that the tories gains are tenuous at best and cannot be seen as a sea change or trend they can count on to continue in the next election. For example, the tory majority in Pembrokshire is 607, in Hornchurch it is 480, in Clwyd West it is 133 and in Croydon Central it is only 75. In fact, in Clwyd West if only 2/3 of the Socialist Labor voters had voted Labour it would have been enough to defeat the tories even with a large Lib Dem vote taking votes away from Labour.
All this news should be troubling for the conservatives. They faced a prime minister that had been plagued by scandals in his cabinet, an unpopular war, a deteriorating health care and education system and a Labour party seemingly divided over Tony Blair. This should have been the tories opportunity to take advantage of the discontent and win 10 Downing. Instead the tories watched almost two thirds of the electorate vote for center-left parties. The tories will certainly point to the seats they won as evidence that they are gaining momentum, but do not let those numbers fool you, the tories are still out in the wilderness and the quick resignation of Howard and subsequent infighting over a new leader indicates that the tories themselves know how far away they are from winning a majority.
Failed to win big but did not lose either
This position belongs to the Liberal Democrats. Again, on the surface this might seem like a strange assessment, after all the Liberal Democrats remain the third party in terms of members and votes in Britain, why are they not the big losers? In addition, the Lib Dems went into the election with high hopes of surging into the primary opposition party slot but only picked up 8 additional seats. Clearly, this is a disappointing result for Lib Dems who hoped to capitalize on the unpopularity of Blair and the war. For these reasons, they are candidates for the biggest losers in the election; however, it is difficult to put the Lib Dems in the loser’s bracket when you put their result in historical context. The Lib Dems were almost an extinct party in the 1980s but the recent election has given the Lib Dems their largest vote percentage and MP representation since the 1920s. Moreover, the Lib Dems gained nearly 4% in the popular vote, more than the other parties and it is only a lack of proportional representation that prevents the Lib Dems from having control of about 1/4 of parliament. Given this historic result it is impossible to say that the Lib Dems were losers, rather they did not win as much as they thought or hoped. This leaves the Libs in a difficult position. They cannot really afford to sack Kennedy given his high personal popularity and the fact that he did lead the LD’s to gains in this past election, yet it is not clear that he can make the LD’s into a primary opposition party. The LD’s have to hope that in the next election they can raise their total another 3-4 % (a realistic number I think) and that the conservatives or Labour drop down to about the same level, this will put them into the position they wanted to be in now, namely, poised to secure second status nationally. Thus, the LD’s are still looking at an 8 year strategy in my view.
The Big Winners
I know it is hard to believe but Labour is the big winner. Disregard all that crap coming from the media about a bloody nose and Blair being finished. The fact is that Blair and Labour have so successfully marginalized the tories that even when their privatization schemes blow up, the war turns unpopular, and Blair runs a poor and defensive campaign they still manage to retain a comfortable majority. If I were in the Labour party I would be celebrating wildly. I know that 67 is not an ideal majority but it is certainly workable and if there is one thing that I have learned from recent U.S. politics it is that being in power no matter how small the majority is an infinitely better position than being in the minority. Look at it this way, Labour fucked things up and they still won a comfortable victory. They are now in the enviable position of having 4+ years to fix things and reassert their dominance. Plus, Labour can ride Blair for a few years and hope things improve and then take credit for the improvement and if Blair fails they can sack him a few months before calling an election, blame him for everything and put forward a new program that might rescue them from defeat. Basically, Labour controls its own destiny now. They survived the challenge from the left and the right is still on its knees looking for its weapon. You can be sure that Labour will not take the LD’s lightly next time and if they can recapture those that defected to the LD’s it is almost a certainty that they will win again in 2009. Finally, as much as I dislike Blair’s policies, I admire his political skill and despite a lackluster campaign he showed after the election why he is the Bill Clinton of Britain. His humble apology and insistence that he will listen to the people was brilliant. Let’s not forget Labour is now on their 3rd straight term, the first time in history, and if they even make faint gestures to the left they are likely to see a 4th straight term.
Summary/Outlook
I think the overarching result from this election is that the tories are still in disarray, the LD’s are the clear voice of the left and that Labour remains ascendant. In order to reclaim power, the tories need a young charismatic leader and they need Labour to continue to ignore social services. In short, the tories need a good leader and they need help from labor to fully recover. The key to winning elections are the big industrial cities and London and right now they are controlled by Labour. Unless the tories can make inroads there, they will remain in the minority. The Lib Dems have the toughest decision in the wake of the election. It seems they did not take votes away from the tories as much as they had hoped so the question is will the LD’s move right to try and peel those voters off the tories or will they maintain their leftist stance and hope to further erode Labour. I do not see the LD’s becoming the primary opposition party unless it comes at the expense of Labour. In other words, I do not expect to see a Labour government and a LD’s opposition with the tories as the third party. I expect the LD’s will continue along their current path and hope that they can take votes from both parties in the next election. Kennedy is a solid but not spectacular leader, he will not hurt the party but he will not attract votes on his own like Blair did in 1997. Therefore, the LD’s need the tories to remain a joke and hope that Labour continues to struggle, this scenario might get the LD’s a better result in 2009 but here again they need help to improve. Labour, meanwhile, is well positioned to increase its majority in 2009. A reasonable 4 years of rule should help move some Lib Dem voters back to Labour and prevent the tories from gaining any traction. Unfortunately, Blair is likely to continue on with his semi-conservative policies that will likely further erode the British economy and cause more suffering. This is the recipe for a Labour loss in 2009, but if Labour can somehow come to its senses it can push its MP majority back over 100. I look for Labour to try to have it both ways, they will try to put more money into social services to blunt the left but they will proceed with privatization and useless security spending. I also expect Labour to attack the LD’s much more over the next 4 years than they did during the campaign. I know it is early and things can change dramatically, but in the end, I predict Blair will be the longest serving PM (breaking Thatcher’s record) and Labour will win again in 2009.
Now it’s time to celebrate the center-left victory with an English muffin.
