Potomac Primary Delegate Baseline

from MyDD....

Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.

Virginia (83 delegates)

Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6

Maryland (70 delegates)

Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6

Washington, DC (15 delegates)

Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1

It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.