RNC march route may not handle the crowd

Approved streets can fit about 40,000, short of turnout estimates
By Jason Hoppin

An analysis of the route granted to protesters for marching at the Republican National Convention raises questions about whether it's large enough to contain a standing crowd of 50,000 comfortably, let alone a moving crowd of people carrying peace signs and chanting anti-war slogans.

The route, which runs from the Capitol to the Xcel Energy Center along Cedar and West Seventh streets, has a surface area of less than 400,000 square feet — enough for a loose crowd of 40,000, using standard crowd-estimation measures.

That's without factoring in medians, barriers, protest signs, strollers and other objects that might subtract from the space available to marchers.

The St. Paul Police Department expressed confidence that the route granted two weeks ago could accommodate the anticipated number of protesters. Spokesman Tom Walsh cited the June 1 Grand Old Day event in St. Paul as evidence of the route's adequacy.

"Look at what 300,000 people look like in a space about as long," Walsh said.

Walsh also noted that the protest will be staggered, with groups starting the march in succession. He stressed that he did not believe the route's length would be an issue.

But protesters said it verifies their concerns. Sarah Martin, with the Coalition to March on the RNC and Stop the War, said her group believes from past experience that the route is not adequate.

"The police are underestimating the effect of that many people in that small of an area," Martin said. "... Everybody seems to know it, actually. The instinct is it won't happen in an orderly way."

Protesters have questioned the route on several fronts and filed an unsuccessful appeal to the St. Paul City Council. They question the time frame — the march along the route is authorized by police to begin at noon Sept. 1 — and the fact that marchers are expected to retrace their steps along West Seventh Street once they reach the Xcel Energy Center.

"If the route has to double back on itself, then it means you can only fit about 20,000," said Sara Flounders, an organizer for the New York-based Troops Out Now Coalition, which plans to protest the convention.

The Coalition to March on the RNC and Stop the War is seeking an alternative route that crosses Interstate 94 along John Ireland Boulevard and arrives at the Xcel Energy Center via Kellogg Boulevard. While protesters prefer the route because of its visibility, it is not longer — at about three-quarters of a mile, it is identical in length to the route through downtown St. Paul.

The convention, where the Republican Party is expected to nominate John McCain as its presidential candidate, will run Sept. 1-4 at the Xcel Energy Center.

The Pioneer Press measured the distance of the march route and the varying width of the streets along the route. It also factored in a triangular block across from Xcel Energy Center that will be used as a free-speech area, along with the streets surrounding the triangle. The figure was then divided by 10 square feet, a standard area used, per person, for estimating the size of a crowd.

Whether the route's length is cause for concern also depends on whether protesters' predictions of 50,000 marchers are reasonable.

Gauging expected crowd size by looking at past conventions is difficult. While both Democratic and Republican conventions have been targeted, much of the anti-war movement's ire is directed at Republican lawmakers. The only Republican convention since the Iraq war began was in 2004 in New York City — and St. Paul is no New York.

There, an estimated 500,000 people marched the day before the convention. Local protest organizers have estimated a fraction of that number will be in St. Paul.

But there are reasons to believe the protesters' estimate of 50,000 is plausible.

Two years ago, police estimated a crowd of 30,000 for an immigrants' rights rally near the state Capitol. That was the largest crowd since 35,000 congregated outside the Capitol following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The Twin Cities also seem ripe to generate the kind of interest needed for a crowd that size. Both cities have reputations for being liberal, with former St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly suffering an overwhelming re-election defeat following his 2004 endorsement of President Bush.

Furthermore, there are dozens of colleges and universities in the two cities, with the 10 largest having a combined enrollment in excess of 100,000. Many students will have just begun a new academic year when the convention begins and will not be in class because of the Labor Day holiday Sept. 1.

"I think we have every reason to believe that the organizers of the march and rally have their finger on the pulse," said Judith LeBlanc, national organizer for New York-based United for Peace and Justice, an umbrella group that includes 1,400 left-leaning organizations. "From our vantage point, the mood out there is to be in the streets."

Teresa Nelson, a lawyer from the Minnesota chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union who represents the Coalition to March on the RNC and Stop the War, is conducting a similar analysis.

"We are looking at capacity," Nelson said, "but we haven't come to any conclusions yet."