Yesterday the Des Moines Register released it's final poll before Thursday's caucus. It showed Barack Obama opening up a huge lead:
Obama - 32
Clinton - 25
Edwards - 24
I'm skeptical of this poll b/c it doesn't seem to jive with other polls released in the last few days that show a virtual 3-way tie.
Not surprisingly, the Clinton and Edwards campaigns have released statements taking issue with the DMR poll.
In this case I actually agree with them. Obama's support seems to be coming mostly from "new voters" or first time caucus goers. Edwards' and Clinton's support is coming from Democratic party loyalists. In 2004 Dean's support came from these "new voters" as well, and we saw what happened to them. Many won't show up, and even if they do they are unfamiliar with the politics of the caucus system. Edwards and Clinton supporters will be much more knowledgeable and more likely to show up on a cold January night to caucus for their candidate.
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