ARG polling has Clinton up by 9 percent, outside the MOE, and DMR has Obama up by 8 pecent, outside the MOE. Zogby finds Obama and Edwards with the momentum, with Obama overtaking Clinton. Edwards has the best final television ads....
I think if you are looking, you can find something that you like that says either of the three candidates will win tonight. One thing that's not been talked about a lot is the social pressure that will happen tonight. This is the part that happens with the 'undecided' voters walk into the caucus room and... look for their friends and community leaders. This was a big deal-maker for Kerry in 2004. It's something a poll cannot measure not predict.
I wouldn't place much in whatever Biden or Richardson tell their supporters about whom to go to for second choice. It just doesn't work that way. If they are not viable, the people already have their second choice in mind, the viable candidates will have representatives there making the pitch for each of their candidates.
The media narrative being expected for Iowa is that Obama is going to win; that Edwards might win; that Clinton is fading-- this might not be what the reporters here are writing but it's what they are saying.
I expect Obama to win, I'd be shocked to see Clinton win, but I'm rooting for Edwards to win.
Last night, hearing John Edwards speak, I came out of there rooting for him to win Iowa-- I want a nomination battle. His speech was so good that I found myself ranking it in the top three of all-time that I've heard delivered, right up there with hearing Jesse Jackson speak in Portland OR during the'88 battle, and Howard Dean's 'I want to know' speech in the CA Dem convention of '03. Edwards was that good.
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