Friday, February 01, 2008

Update on MarxistGophers Super Tuesday Predictions

I wanted to post an update to my Super Tuesday predictions before I go home. I have Obama picking up Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota, but I flipped California back to Clinton. Obviously, given the number of delegates involved, this is not good for Obama if this scenario plays out. Keep in mind, however, that the Democratic primary isn't winner-take-all in states. Delegates are awarded proportionally. I think it's shaping up for a Hillary lead coming out of Super Tuesday, but it won't be a crushing blow that will knock Obama out of the race. Which means this could continue into March. The only question will be what size the Hillary lead is in delegates after Super Tuesday. If it's close Obama will still have a realistic chance, but if Hillary can open a bit of a lead Obama isn't likely to catch her....

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