Is John Edwards REALLY going to win Iowa?

I've been noticing Edwards creeping up in the Iowa polls lately. And I've talked about his chances of actually winning the Iowa caucuses. But now it seems others are taking notice as well.

by Mark Halperin

John Edwards is well positioned to shock (some) of the political world by winning the Democrats’ Iowa caucuses on January 3rd. Backers of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would not be the least bit surprised if Edwards finished first in that kick-off contest, although they argue that his strength in Iowa is not matched in the states that will vote afterwards.

That latter point has some merits (as does the counter argument made by Edwards’ advisers, who believe an Iowa win will rocket him into contention in other primaries and caucuses). What is not debatable is that the North Carolinian has plenty of advantages in Iowa that could propel him to the most important political victory of the year.

Here, then, is a Millworker’s Dozen list of what Edwards has going for him in Iowa:

1. The endorsement of the First Lady of Iowa.

2. The support (some secret) of people close to Governor Culver.

3. Big Labor help being quietly marshaled by one of Iowa’s top Democratic operatives and by Edwards’ 2004 campaign manager.

4. A consistently confident, upbeat demeanor.

5. A re-tooled stump speech that has audiences rising up, and that is filled with specifics of his agenda.

6. Caucus rules that work to the advantage of those with strong support in rural and blue collar areas.

7. Dedicated supporters who will likely turn out even if the weather is cold and inclement.

8. National trial lawyers who are going to do something (read: “everything”) to get their guy elected.

9. A popular, visible spouse.

10. More than enough money to be competitive.

11. Fearlessness.

12. A stronger work ethic than anyone in the race.

13. Perfect pitch in handling Clinton-Obama conflict.

14. A strong Des Moines Register debate performance.

15. New polling showing him as a strong general election candidate and some new boffo national media clips.

16. High favorables and strong second choice support.

17. Trained precinct captains in almost every precinct – a true, old-fashioned organization.