Two new polls were released on the race in Iowa. A Research 200 poll showed a Barack Obama lead with 33%, and Hillary and Edwards both at 24%. However, a Financial Dynamics poll showed both Hillary and Obama at 27% with Edwards at 22%.What this tells me is that it's basically a dead heat with a couple weeks to go. I think Hillary still has to be the favorite because of the machinery of the Democratic Party that will be behind her. Much like the way the machine came through fro Kerry in 2004 against the inexperienced Dean workers. The caucus system is fairly unpredictable because voters will switch to their second and third choices during the evening to make groups large enough for delegates. This is a good thing for John Edwards, as he seems to be the 2nd choice of many supporters of both Hillary and Obama.
It;s also very hard to get accurate poll numbers in a caucus state like Iowa. Only about 10-15% of eligible voters will actually show up on caucus night, making it nearly impossible to get accurate polling data. A lot can change in the next 2 weeks, but expect the winner in Iowa to shoot up in all the other states and become a front-runner that's very difficult to beat.
My prediction:
Hillary wins by a comfortable number, but Edwards comes in 2nd. Obama will finish a very disappointing 3rd, which could cripple his campaign.
3 comments:
Where's your optimism? Maybe Edwards will come in first.
Where's Andy's optimism??? Beaten to within an inch of it's life and hiding in the closet, I think.
"Where's Andy's optimism??? Beaten to within an inch of it's life and hiding in the closet, I think."
That is quite possibly the funniest thing I've heard or read in all of 2007!
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